Global Corn Markets Show Pressure Amid Trade Shifts and Brazil's Record Outlook

Monday’s commodity markets reflected mounting pressure on corn prices, with futures retreating 2 to 3.25 cents as the week progressed. The national average cash corn price declined 2.75 cents to $3.91 1/2, influenced by broader market dynamics including a crude oil drop of $3.48 per barrel and a strengthening US dollar index at $0.586.

Export Flow Remains Above Year-Ago Pace

The week’s Export Inspections report disclosed 1.136 MMT (44.74 mbu) of corn shipments for the period ending January 29, marking a 9.88% decline from the previous week but still representing significant international demand. The year-over-year comparison showed 26.55% lower shipments than the same timeframe last year, yet the marketing year total of 32.611 MMT (1.284 bbu) continues tracking 49.86% above the prior-year equivalent.

Japan emerged as the leading destination with 444,439 MT purchased, followed by Mexico at 260,227 MT and Colombia at 147,478 MT. These flows underscore the sustained demand for American commodities despite near-term pricing pressures.

US-India Trade Agreement Signals Opportunity for Corn Exports

A significant development came with President Trump’s Truth Social announcement regarding his conversation with India’s President Modi. The negotiations resulted in tariff reductions on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, paired with India’s commitment to purchase over $500 billion in US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products. Given India’s historical position as a top 3-4 buyer of US ethanol, this agreement carries particular relevance for corn markets and related industries.

Brazilian Corn Crop Expansion Reshapes Global Supply

Meanwhile, Brazil’s production landscape continues to evolve. AgRural assessments place the first corn crop at 10% harvested, lagging the 14% pace recorded in the previous year. The second crop planting progress stands at 13%, running 4 percentage points ahead of last year’s timeline. These metrics directly influence global corn supply projections.

StoneX’s latest estimates project Brazil’s first corn crop at 26.59 MMT, a 610,000 MT increase from their prior assessment. The second crop projection reached 106.37 MMT, representing a 560,000 MT upward revision. The accumulation of larger South American production weighs on pricing dynamics for North American corn.

Speculation Retreats While Commercial Positioning Shifts

Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC revealed managed money speculators trimmed 9,274 contracts from their net short position in corn futures and options during the week ending January 27. New long positions primarily drove this adjustment, while the net short remained substantial at 72,050 contracts. Commercial traders witnessed modest long reduction, with net short positions expanding 17,381 contracts to 187,342 contracts—reflecting the complex positioning across market participants.

Futures Prices Continue Downward Adjustment

March corn futures retreated 3.25 cents to $4.25, while nearby cash remained under pressure at $3.91 1/2, down 2.75 cents. May corn fell 3.25 cents to $4.32 1/2, July corn declined 3 cents to $4.39. The breadth of declines across the contract curve underscores broad-based weakness affecting the entire corn complex.