Hawkish Sentiment Still Calls for Doves! Goldman Sachs Confident: The Federal Reserve Will Cut Rates Four Times This Year, Tech Debt Gains Momentum!#我在Gate广场过新年

January Non-Farm Payrolls Surpass Expectations, The Federal Reserve Signals Hawkish Stance, Market Rate Cut Expectations Rapidly Cool Down, but Goldman Sachs Contrarily Releases Heavy Dovish Outlook!

Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Grade Credit Chief Jonny Fine firmly states: The Federal Reserve will start rate cuts in June this year, with four cuts expected throughout the year, mainly towards the end of the year; the US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to fall to 3.5%, a more dovish stance than Goldman Sachs' internal view. Currently, CME interest rate futures show traders are only betting on two rate cuts in June and September. Fed officials continue to signal hawkishness, reaffirming their focus on inflation in the short term and not initiating rate cuts for now.

Wall Street bulls are lining up: Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn also predicts that the number of rate cuts will far exceed expectations, with the core logic pointing to leadership changes at the Federal Reserve—if Waller takes the helm, he will push for more forward-looking easing policies based on AI productivity improvements. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has also publicly called for rate cuts, stating that excessive monetary tightening threatens economic growth, and inflation is not the current primary risk.

On the other side, tech giants are launching the largest infrastructure investments in human history, increasing capital expenditures by $120 billion to $150 billion, and heavily issuing bonds for financing. The US credit environment is extremely friendly, with spreads approaching the lows of 1997. Even if corporate short-term free cash flow faces pressure, the bond market remains calm, with corporate cash flows expected to significantly rebound within two to five years.

The hawk-dove game is heating up, with the pace of rate cuts and the trajectory of tech debt influencing global asset pricing. Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut rates how many times this year? Can the tech debt rally continue to stay bullish? Come share your thoughts in the comments!