When Data Becomes an Emotion Amplifier

The reason non-farm payroll data influences global markets is because it affects both growth expectations and policy outlooks, making it a rare "dual-attribute indicator." This time, the much stronger-than-expected report essentially dropped an emotional stone into the market, triggering a chain reaction of policy, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk appetite ripples.
Short-term funds love trading on "expectation gaps." If the market previously overbet on weakness and rate cuts, then a strong non-farm report is like a slap in the face, prompting rapid re-pricing. A stronger dollar, gold volatility, and swings in risk assets are all part of this rebalancing. But re-pricing doesn’t mean a reversal; it’s more like swinging the pendulum back to the middle from one extreme.
From a medium-term perspective, stable employment indicates the economy’s foundation is still solid, and the probability of systemic recession decreases. This actually provides an invisible support for global risk assets. The issue lies in the valuation and interest rate alignment—under high interest rates, high valuations require more solid earnings to justify.
Investing has never been about guessing data, but about managing expectations. When everyone is watching the same non-farm report, the real advantage is in thinking ahead: what to do if the data is strong, and what to do if it’s weak. Writing the script in advance makes it easier to survive the next market cycle than chasing emotions in the market.
#非农数据大超预期