Where will Bitcoin bottom?

No denying now that the 4 year cycle is likely in play. I’m using the last bear market in 2022 as confluence and using the fractal that is almost mirroring current price action. The only difference being it’s happening a lot quicker this cycle.
The weekly 200 ema is the main focus point here. If we are to follow the same path as of 2022 that takes price to 37.3k with an earlier bottom of around August instead of October, because the drop is happening quicker as I explained.
The only invalidation of this is if we start closing weekly candles above the 200ema.
Here on x there has been many other bottoms thesis based on previous PA:
1) 2022 bottomed at the 78.6% fib. ~$39,176.
2) Every cycle bottom has happened 15% below its Long-Term Holder Realized Price.
Right now, it's sitting around $40,300. A 15% dip means Bitcoin will bottom around $34,500.
My thesis meets those two somewhere in the middle.
37.4k