$XAU As shown in the figure ‌

1. Core Logic: Short-term Adjustments Do Not Alter the Long-term Bull Market Foundation

• Long-term Pillar Stability: Continuous gold purchases by global central banks (2025 Q4 purchase amount ranks second in history), accelerated de-dollarization, and increased holdings by stablecoin issuers support the return of gold’s monetary attributes.

• Nature of Short-term Fluctuations: Technical overbought corrections + deleveraging + algorithmic trading sell-offs are not indicative of a macroeconomic reversal.

• Cycle Positioning: Currently in a healthy consolidation phase of the third bull market that began in 2015; 15%-20% pullbacks are normal in historical bull markets.

2. Bull and Bear Drivers: Key Factors Breakdown for February

• Bullish Factors

◦ Central Bank Purchases: Diversification of assets by emerging market central banks, with a 13% increase in dollar-denominated gold purchases in 2025.

◦ Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand: Repeated regional conflicts and great power rivalries boost demand for gold as a safe haven.

◦ Physical Demand: Strong consumer demand in the second half of the Chinese Spring Festival season.

◦ Policy Vacuum: No Federal Reserve interest rate decision in February, easing short-term policy pressure.

• Bearish Factors

◦ Hawkish Fed Expectations: If U.S. non-farm payrolls data exceeds expectations, the probability of maintaining high interest rates increases, suppressing gold prices.

◦ Profit-taking at High Levels: Excessive previous gains lead to profit realization and selling pressure.

◦ Short-term Dollar Strength: Stabilization of the US dollar index exerts short-term downward pressure on gold prices.