.27 Morning Gold Trading Ideas

Spot gold yesterday broke above the 5110 historical high, touched 5052.11 during the session, then oscillated and pulled back. This morning, it is fluctuating around 5040. The medium- to long-term bullish logic remains solid, but short-term overbought risks are accumulating. The core approach today is to focus on a slightly strong oscillation and avoid chasing highs, paying attention to the capital game ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.

Fundamentally, the supporting logic remains unchanged. The global central bank gold-buying wave continues, with Poland's central bank approving a 150-ton gold purchase plan, and China's central bank increasing holdings for 14 consecutive months, providing rigid demand for gold prices. Geopolitical tensions and weakening dollar credit resonate, with disputes over Greenland intensifying US-European differences. High US debt levels weaken the dollar's attractiveness, and the dual forces of safe-haven demand and asset revaluation drive gold prices. This week, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (early morning on January 30) is highly likely to keep rates unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether political pressure shakes policy independence, with dovish expectations still providing potential support.

Technically, caution is advised regarding a pullback risk. The daily RSI indicator is at 87.3, far exceeding the overbought threshold. A top divergence pattern has appeared on the 4-hour chart. After a gain of over 14% this month, momentum is overextended, and profit-taking pressure at the 5000 level is evident. Key support is at 4895-4900 (former high turned support + 5-day moving average), with strong support at 4800. Resistance is concentrated around 5050-5100. A volume breakout above this range could open the upward space.

In terms of trading strategy, firmly avoid chasing longs at high levels. For existing long positions, move stop-loss up to 4980, and take profits in batches to lock in gains. For new positions, wait for a pullback to stabilize around 4950-4980 before lightly trying long positions. Shorts should only be considered if clear resistance signals appear near 5100, with very small positions. Quick in and out, avoid fighting the market.

Focus on the USD trend and geopolitical news during the day. Volatility may increase ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. Keep positions within 30% risk exposure, prioritizing risk control.