From cryptocurrencies to policies: Scaramucci's view of the 2026 crypto opportunities

In recent market commentary, veteran investor Scaramucci made an important judgment—although 2025 will be exceptionally difficult for the crypto industry, with the improvement of the US policy environment, 2026 could become the “best window” for high-quality altcoins. Behind this argument is an expectation of rate cuts, loose financial conditions, and the advancement of crypto legislation.

The “Black Swan” of 2025: Why the Market Is So Downbeat

Scaramucci attributes the difficulties of 2025 to several key factors. First is the large-scale sell-off by whales—he estimates approximately $4.6 billion in sell-offs flowing into ETF demand, creating sustained selling pressure. Second is the deleveraging event around mid-October, which directly impacted market makers and retail investor sentiment.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s 30% decline, while a common occurrence historically, still dealt a significant blow to bullish traders. More importantly, market sentiment has bottomed out—Scaramucci revealed that his internal “bull market index” hovers around 13-14 out of 100.

However, he believes this extreme pessimism is precisely the turning point. “When market expectations reach such lows, incremental good news, large investors reducing sales, ETF inflows stabilizing, or regulatory progress could trigger an outsized market reaction.”

Scaramucci’s Top Three Altcoins: Solana, Avalanche, and TON

When asked about his favorite altcoins, Scaramucci straightforwardly named his preferred portfolio as Solana, Avalanche, and TON related to Telegram.

His preference for Solana is relatively straightforward: “Low cost, fast, easy to develop, easy to use.” He emphasizes that he is “not an Ethereum opponent,” but rather optimistic about a “multi-coin coexistence world” pattern.

As for TON, Scaramucci’s investment journey is quite representative—he initially bought in at $7.50, then continued to add to his position at an average price of about $4.00. Although during the interview, TON’s trading price had fallen to around $1.50, he remains long-term bullish, reasoning that the expansion potential of the Telegram network could support TON’s value capture as a utility token within the network.

Policy Changes as the Next Market Catalyst

The core logic of Scaramucci’s discussion points to policy. He believes that the passage of crypto legislation such as the Clarity Act is crucial because, without legal clarity, serious tokenization projects remain restricted. He asks, “If you can’t guarantee the usability of a token, who would invest hundreds of billions of dollars to transform the financial system?”

From a macro perspective, he estimates that the global economy incurs transaction verification costs of $3.5-4 trillion annually, and if this cost can be reduced by 50% through crypto technology, about $2 trillion in capital expenditure could be freed up in other areas of the economy.

Regarding the likelihood of policy approval, Scaramucci gives a probability of “over 50%”, reasoning that the Democrats have recognized that “there are no anti-crypto voters,” and crypto-related spending could become a decisive factor in the fierce midterm election competition.

Macro Outlook and Bitcoin Targets

Scaramucci expects 2026 to see “two to four” rate cut cycles, which will further release liquidity. He believes that governments facing midterm elections will want to release growth signals, thus “flooding the market with capital, lowering interest rates, and revitalizing the economy.” This combination is bullish for stocks, altcoins, and the entire crypto market.

For Bitcoin, Scaramucci maintains his $150,000 annual target, admitting that “this forecast might be a year late.” He has recently “increased Bitcoin holdings for his family,” betting that ETF inflows and loose policies can absorb the aftereffects of whale sell-offs in 2025.

As of the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $2.94 trillion. In Scaramucci’s view, as policy dividends gradually materialize, this figure is expected to enter a new expansion cycle driven by policy catalysts.