VanEck Q1 Global Market Outlook: Cryptocurrencies Remain Bullish in the Long Term, Gold Demand Still Strong

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Author: VanEck

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Entering 2026, clearer fiscal and monetary signals support a more optimistic risk appetite, with more attractive investment opportunities emerging in artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies.

Key Points:

By the end of 2025, AI-related stocks experienced a significant correction, resetting valuations and making AI and related themes more attractive for investment.

Gold continues to re-emerge as a global monetary asset, with the correction providing a better entry point.

After a challenging 2025, Business Development Companies (BDCs) now offer more attractive yields and valuations.

India remains a high-growth potential investment market, while cryptocurrencies are long-term bullish, but short-term signals are complex.

As we move into 2026, the market is in a rare environment: clarity. Although selectivity remains crucial, this clarity around fiscal policy, monetary policy directions, and key investment themes supports a more positive risk appetite strategy.

Following a sharp correction in some AI-related stocks at the end of last year, current AI trading is more attractive than the “suffocating” highs of October. Notably, despite this correction, the underlying demand for computing, tokens, and productivity enhancements remains strong.

Related themes, such as nuclear energy linked to AI-driven power demand, have also experienced significant price adjustments. This adjustment improves the risk-reward profile for investors with a medium- to long-term perspective.

Fewer surprises in fiscal and monetary policy

One of the most important developments for the market is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal situation. Although the deficit remains high, its proportion of GDP has declined from the pandemic-era highs. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces tail risks.

Regarding interest rates, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describes the current rate levels as “normal,” which is quite meaningful. Markets should not expect aggressive or destabilizing short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points to policy stability, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks. This is also one of the reasons for a clearer market outlook.

Nuclear energy stocks corrected in Q4:

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2025

Business Development Companies regain attention

BDCs experienced a tough year in 2025, but this correction has created opportunities. With yields still attractive and credit concerns largely digested by the market, BDCs are now more appealing than a year ago.

The management companies behind them (such as Ares) are also more reasonably valued compared to their long-term profitability and past performance.

Gold as a global monetary asset

Driven by central bank demand and the global economy’s gradual move away from dollar dominance, gold continues to re-emerge as a leading global currency. Although technically gold prices seem overextended, VanEck views this correction as a good opportunity to increase holdings. Its structural advantages remain intact.

Gold prices remain above support levels, but demand stays strong:

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of December 31, 2025

India and cryptocurrency investment opportunities

Apart from the US market, India remains a highly promising long-term investment market, benefiting from structural reforms and sustained growth momentum.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term signals more complex. This divergence supports a more cautious outlook for the next 3 to 6 months. However, not all within VanEck share this view; Matthew Sigel and David Schassler hold a more optimistic stance regarding the recent cycle.

Related reading: VanEck report: Bitcoin enters a structural rebalancing phase, building momentum for 2026 rally