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1. 1-Hour Level Structure Analysis (Direction Setting)
The current price is approximately 96,300. From the chart, it is clear that:
- Major structure: Bullish trend remains intact
- The bottom has been breaking upward from 90k to 98k
- Currently pulling back from the 98k high
Conclusion:
The 1-hour timeframe still shows a bullish correction, not a trend reversal.
2. 15-Minute Current State (Execution Cycle)
The 15-minute chart is now in:
- A correction after a high-level rally
- Fluctuating between 95,800 and 96,500
This is a consolidation after a bullish pullback, not a downtrend. There are two possible scenarios:
1. Continue upward after the pullback to reach 98k
2. Break below 95,500, then probe to 94,800 before making a decision
3. Practical Trading Plan (Key Points)
Plan 1: Buy on pullback (main plan, trend-following)
In the 95,600 to 95,900 zone:
- Look for 15-minute signals of stabilization or small upward movement
Plan 2: Short on breakdown (defensive)
Condition: If the 15-minute chart effectively breaks below 95,200 and the rebound fails to recover
Current Optimal Strategy Summary:
- Major cycle: Bullish trend
- Minor cycle: Wait for pullback completion signals before going long
Recommendations:
- Do not chase orders around 96,000
- Wait for confirmation of pullback or breakdown to go short
One-sentence Strategy:
Waiting for bullish signals in the 95.6 to 95.9 range to go long is the best approach; switch to short after breaking below 95.2.