Based on on-chain data, the true cost baseline of whales reveals a lot of information. Especially since 2025, the new large holders have accounted for more than half of realized capital, with their heavy positions generally in the range of $90,000 to $100,000. At the same time, ETF inflows from institutions have not stopped during this period, and signals of cold wallet and custody transfers are particularly strong, all pointing in the same direction.

From this perspective, below 95k should be a relatively comfortable buying window. Of course, the market won't always move in a straight line. If it breaks this support, it could easily trigger leveraged liquidations and then quickly rebound — Monte Carlo model simulations show that the probability of a deep correction is actually less than 25%, which also provides us with some reference.