From pessimism to greed, how did BTC break through $97,000 in a week

Bitcoin soared from $92,000 to $97,860 within just one week, with a market capitalization surpassing $1.9 trillion. This is not just a price breakthrough but also a reflection of the rapid shift in market sentiment. From extreme pessimism at the end of last year (Fear & Greed Index 28) to now being in greed territory (Index 61), the driving forces behind this change warrant in-depth analysis.

Key Data on the Price Breakthrough

According to the latest news, as of January 15, BTC is trading at $95,763.44, with a 24-hour high of $97,860.60, hitting a recent new high. This breakout was not sudden but followed a clear upward chain.

The current market cap has reached $1.91 trillion, up $5.872 billion from yesterday, with BTC’s share in the entire crypto market remaining around 59%.

Dramatic Shift in Market Sentiment

The most direct change is reflected in the Fear & Greed Index. It jumped from 48 the previous day to 61, while the weekly average was only 28. What does this mean? The market has quickly shifted from extreme fear to greed, indicating a significant improvement in investors’ risk appetite.

Interestingly, this rally has a very distinct geographic characteristic. North American trading hours have become the main engine of this rise, with a cumulative increase of about 8%, far higher than the 3% during European hours. This signals that global funds are systematically increasing risk exposure, contrasting sharply with the sustained pressure during North American hours in Q4 2025.

Continued Institutional Fund Inflows

Data shows that the foundation of this market rise is not just sentiment improvement but also real capital support. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced strong inflows, with a net daily inflow of about 8,933 BTC, equivalent to approximately $849 million, a recent high.

Institutions holding large amounts of Bitcoin are also active. Whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have been steadily increasing their holdings since early January, from about 2.18 million to 2.20 million BTC. Meanwhile, retail selling pressure has noticeably decreased, with small wallets holding between 0.01 and 0.1 BTC slightly increasing their holdings.

Multi-level Capital Deployment

• Institutional level: ETF continues to see inflows, large wallets increase holdings
• Retail level: Small wallets reduce selling pressure
• Exchange level: About $600 million worth of Bitcoin transferred to mainstream platforms, echoing ETF inflows

This multi-level synchronized deployment indicates that all market participants are optimistic about the future.

Macro Environment and Policy Support

Supporting this rally is also macroeconomic improvement. The decline in US Consumer Price Index data has reinforced market expectations of a shift in monetary policy this year, providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin.

On the policy front, the US Senate is advancing the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act, and Rhode Island has introduced a Bitcoin trading tax exemption bill (exempting annual trading volumes under $20,000 from state income and capital gains taxes). These measures send a clear signal: regulatory frameworks are gradually becoming clearer, greatly boosting institutional confidence in entering the crypto market.

Technical Performance

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has completed an effective breakout of the cup-and-handle pattern. The resistance near $94,800 was broken with increased volume, a key technical signal. Technical calculations suggest that the target price corresponding to this pattern points to $106,600.

Major trading clusters are concentrated below the current price, indicating that many chips are in profit, and short-term selling pressure is relatively limited. This creates conditions for further upward movement.

Risks to Watch

However, there are risks that cannot be ignored. The long positions in derivatives markets are significantly higher than shorts, meaning that if the price falls below the support near $94,800, it could trigger a mass liquidation. In the past hour, the entire network experienced $128 million in liquidations, with $101 million in Bitcoin liquidations, highlighting ongoing risks in the derivatives market.

Future Outlook

Based on the current technical pattern and market sentiment, Bitcoin is expected to continue testing the $106,600 target. However, there may be pullbacks and consolidations along the way, especially around key levels such as the $100,000 psychological barrier.

Further clarity in policy environment and continued institutional inflows provide fundamental support for this upward trend. Nonetheless, investors should remain vigilant, monitor derivatives risk indicators, and be aware of potential shocks from policy changes.

Summary

Bitcoin’s weekly breakout from $92,000 to $97,860 reflects comprehensive improvements in market sentiment, institutional capital, technical outlook, and policy environment. The soaring fear index, strong ETF inflows, whale wallet accumulation, and gradually clarified regulatory framework all weave together this bullish story. The technical target points to $106,600, but investors should be cautious of concentrated risks in derivatives markets. The key now is whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the psychological $100,000 level, which will determine the subsequent upside potential.