#美国就业数据不及预期 【Inflation Data Surpasses Expectations, Rate Cut Dream Will Have to Wait a Little Longer】

Recently, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released inflation data that truly took the market by surprise. The core PPI (Producer Price Index) for November 2025 rose to 3.0% year-over-year, not only higher than the previous month's 2.9% but also far exceeding market expectations of 2.7%. On a month-over-month basis, the core PPI remained flat, but the overall PPI increased by 0.2%.

Why is this data so critical? Simply put, the PPI is the "barometer" for the CPI. Rising production costs are likely to be passed on to consumers—in other words, the price pressure on us ordinary folks may continue to increase. If companies haven't brought down production costs, it means the fight against inflation is only halfway through.

For the Federal Reserve and the market, this is simply bad news layered with more bad news. Rate cuts can't come anytime soon, and a high-interest-rate environment will persist longer. Stocks, bonds, commodities—all assets will need to be revalued, and volatility is bound to increase. Honestly, this round of "inflation recurrence" has become the biggest macro risk factor at present, and the market's hopes for rate cuts and easing should wake up.

Everything depends on how subsequent CPI data will turn out, but from current signals, the Federal Reserve is still a long way from a full rate cut.