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2026年美联储宽松周期或推高美元流动性,比特币能否乘势而上?
【链文】美联储资产负债表扩张的预期正在浮现。一旦联邦基金利率继续走低、银行贷款和抵押贷款利率随之下行,美元流动性在2026年有望迎来明显增长。这背后的逻辑不复杂——更多流动性流入市场,风险资产往往会受益。比特币作为风险资产的代表,在这样的环境下往往会跟风上涨。当然,这种预测基于宏观政策环境的假设,实际情况还要看央行真实政策走向。不过从历史规律看,流动性充裕阶段确实容易推高加密市场热度。