33% win rate daily profit of $136,800. What is the trading strategy logic of this BTC trader?

A trader used a 33% win rate to make 24 BTC predictions in one day, resulting in a total profit of $136,800. This may seem counterintuitive, but the data speaks for itself. According to Lookonchain’s monitoring, trader hai15617 recently made a profit of $44,500 in his latest operation, which is just another successful application of his strategy. This case raises an interesting question: how can low win rates still lead to big profits?

The Logic Behind the Trading Data

Win rate is not the only deciding factor

Out of 24 predictions, hai15617 was correct only 8 times, with a win rate of just 33.33%. Under normal circumstances, two-thirds of the trades would fail, and he would likely lose money. But the reality is quite the opposite—he achieved significant profits. This highlights a key point: in trading, win rate is not the sole determinant of success.

What truly determines profit and loss is the ratio of profit per winning trade to loss per losing trade. If each successful trade yields far more than each unsuccessful one, then even with a 33% win rate, overall profitability is achievable. This trader clearly understands this core principle.

Strategy replicability

According to the information, hai15617 uses the “same strategy” for multiple predictions. This indicates that it’s not a one-off gamble but a systematic trading approach. Executing 24 trades in a single day suggests that this strategy has sufficient replicability and operational efficiency.

Market Context and Opportunities

Currently, BTC is in a relatively stable upward phase. According to the latest data, BTC price is $96,145.94, with a 24-hour increase of 0.80% and a 7-day increase of 5.83%. In such a market environment, short-term volatility predictions are relatively easier to grasp, providing opportunities for high-frequency trading.

As the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, BTC accounts for 59.05% of the total market value, with ample liquidity and relatively regular price fluctuations. These characteristics create a favorable environment for predictive strategies.

Risks and Sustainability Concerns

Factors to Pay Attention To

While this case is eye-catching, several practical issues must be considered:

• High-frequency trading faces higher slippage and transaction costs, which can erode profits
• A 33% win rate can be profitable but also means experiencing more failures than successes
• The intensity of 24 predictions per day is unlikely to be sustainable long-term; psychological pressure and execution risks increase
• Changes in market conditions may render the strategy ineffective

Limitations of Sample Size

Currently, we only see a successful case. A strategy that profits over one day, two days, or even a week does not guarantee continued profitability over a month or quarter. Survivor bias is a common trap in trading.

Market Insights

The value of this case is not to encourage everyone to engage in high-frequency trading but to highlight some important trading principles:

• Money management is far more important than win rate. Controlling the size of each loss allows profitable trades to cover losing ones
• Consistency and replicability of the strategy are the foundation of sustainable profits
• Opportunities always exist in the market; the key is to find a method that suits you
• Successful cases require multi-dimensional validation; short-term gains do not equate to long-term ability

Summary

hai15617’s $136,800 profit is indeed impressive, but the core lesson from this case is not simply “low win rate can still make money.” The real takeaway is that effective risk management and strict strategy execution are more decisive for final returns than high win rates. This trader clearly excels in both areas. However, for most traders, before copying this strategy, it’s more important to think about how to build their own trading system rather than blindly pursuing high-frequency operations. Opportunities are always present in the market; the key is to seize them in a way that fits your style.