What's Behind Barrick Mining's Explosive 195% Rally—And Whether It Can Continue

Gold mining stocks have staged a remarkable comeback in 2025, with Barrick Mining Corporation (B) leading the charge. The company’s shares surged 195.1% over the past year, a gain that far outpaced both the broader mining sector and the overall market. To understand if this rally has legs, we need to dig into what’s actually driving Barrick’s performance.

The 195% Story: Gold, Geopolitics, and Central Banks

The raw numbers tell an interesting tale. While the Zacks Mining – Gold industry index climbed 139.6% and the S&P 500 rose a modest 16.9%, Barrick’s 195% surge reflects something deeper than simple sector rotation. The primary catalyst has been gold prices themselves, which rocketed roughly 65% last year to hover above $4,400 per ton—levels driven by a perfect storm of uncertainty.

Trade tensions topped the list. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and sweeping import restrictions created investor anxiety worldwide, driving safe-haven demand for bullion. Equally important has been central bank behavior: institutions across the globe have been accumulating gold reserves at a historic pace, both as a hedge against policy volatility and as a store of value. The Federal Reserve’s three rate cuts in 2025—with the December decision reducing rates by a quarter percentage point—also benefited gold by making non-yielding assets more attractive. Labor market concerns and signs of economic weakness have reinforced expectations that rate cuts could continue, further supporting precious metals.

Among peers, Barrick’s performance stands out but isn’t unique. Newmont Corporation (NEM) rallied 174.5%, while Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) surged 200.7%. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) posted a more modest 120.5% gain over the same period. The fact that multiple gold miners are posting triple-digit returns underscores how much the sector has benefited from the tailwinds rather than company-specific strength alone.

Production Momentum: The Next Chapter

What separates Barrick from being just another gold stock caught in a commodity wave is its pipeline of growth projects. The company is advancing several major initiatives designed to meaningfully boost production over the next three to five years.

The Goldrush mine is ramping toward 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, establishing itself as a cornerstone asset. Adjacent to Goldrush is the Fourmile project—fully owned by Barrick—which is yielding ore grades double those of Goldrush. With a successful drilling program now advancing to prefeasibility study status, Fourmile shows significant potential to become another Tier One mine in the company’s portfolio.

International expansion is also key. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually by its second development phase, with first production expected by end-2028. Meanwhile, Barrick’s Lumwana mine in Zambia is undergoing a $2 billion Super Pit Expansion, expected to unlock 240,000 tons of annual copper production. The company has framed this turnaround as transforming the asset from an underperformer into a vital part of its global copper strategy.

Critically, these projects are advancing on schedule and within budget—a refreshing sign in an industry plagued by cost overruns and delays.

The Balance Sheet: Firepower for Growth

Barrick’s financial position has strengthened considerably, providing room to invest in these projects while rewarding shareholders. At the end of third-quarter 2025, the company held approximately $5 billion in cash and equivalents. Operating cash flow surged to roughly $2.4 billion in Q3, a 105% year-over-year jump, while free cash flow nearly tripled to around $1.5 billion from $444 million in the prior-year quarter.

This cash generation has supported an active shareholder return program. Barrick returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks. In February 2025, the board authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program, and the company completed $1 billion in buybacks during the first nine months of 2025—including $589 million in Q3 alone. The current dividend yield stands at 1.6%, backed by a sustainable 32% payout ratio and a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.8%.

The Cost Challenge: The Hidden Drag

Not everything is rosy. Barrick faces headwinds on the cost side that could crimp margins if gold prices don’t stay elevated.

All-in-sustaining costs (AISC), the industry’s key profitability metric, reached $1,538 per ounce in Q3, up 2% year-over-year. Cash costs per ounce rose 3% over the same period. The company’s consolidated gold production tumbled 12% year-over-year to 829,000 ounces in Q3, partly due to temporary suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine.

Looking ahead, management projects total cash costs of $1,050-$1,130 per ounce and AISC in the $1,460-$1,560 range for full-year 2025—both representing year-over-year increases at the midpoint. Gold production is expected to total 3.15-3.5 million ounces for 2025, down from 3.91 million ounces in 2024. While some of this decline is temporary (Loulo-Gounkoto will likely restart), the softer output trajectory is concerning given the company’s long-term ambitions.

For investors, this cost dynamic creates a dependency: Barrick’s margins expand and contract with gold prices. At $4,400 per ton, the math works. At $3,200, it becomes much tighter.

Valuation: Reasonably Priced, Not Cheap

From a valuation standpoint, Barrick offers a measured entry point. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.84X, roughly 4.7% below the mining industry average of 13.47X. It trades at a discount to Agnico Eagle and Newmont but commands a premium to Kinross Gold. The stock carries a Zacks Value Score of B, matching Kinross Gold but superior to Newmont © and Agnico Eagle (D).

Earnings revisions have been tracking northward. The Zacks Consensus Estimate now implies 79.4% earnings growth for 2025 and 51.4% growth for 2026—numbers that reflect upwardly revised estimates over the past 60 days.

The Technical Picture

From a technical standpoint, Barrick has established bullish momentum. The stock broke above its 50-day simple moving average on May 30, 2025, and is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, signaling a sustained uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been trading above the 200-day SMA since April 9, 2025, following a golden crossover that confirmed intermediate-term strength.

The Bottom Line for Investors

Barrick presents a mixed profile. On the positive side, the company has a fortress balance sheet, expanding production projects on track, a reliable dividend, and valuations that don’t look stretched. The gold price environment remains favorable given geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and potential further rate cuts.

The offsetting risks are real: cost inflation, a near-term production contraction, and an earnings outlook entirely dependent on gold sustaining current or higher prices. For existing holders, maintaining the position remains prudent given the growth catalysts ahead. For new investors, current valuations offer entry at reasonable levels, though patience may be warranted to see whether the Reko Diq and Lumwana expansions can offset near-term production softness.

The 195% surge has been justified by fundamentals and tailwinds, but the next 195% won’t come automatically—execution on the project pipeline will be the deciding factor.