US Natural Gas Market Under Pressure: When Will Bullish Recovery Come?

Technical Breakdown Signals Prolonged Weakness

The natural gas futures market is painting a grim picture as traders navigate lower prices and mounting supply concerns. At current levels around $1.699 (down 1.91%), the bears maintain control despite some speculation about short-covering bounces. The real story lies in the technical setup: the 50-day moving average sits at $1.910, acting as a formidable resistance that buyers must overcome to spark meaningful upside momentum. Without genuine institutional buying pressure, any rebound risks becoming just another dead cat bounce in an otherwise bearish environment.

Supply Surge Meets Demand Cliff

Here’s where things get interesting for US natural gas news watchers. April production in the U.S. dropped to 97.3 billion cubic feet daily—a notable decline from March’s 100.8 billion cubic feet. But that’s only half the problem. The real headwind comes from the demand side, where forecasts project next week’s consumption could sink to just 91.0 billion cubic feet per day. The culprit? Freeport LNG limping along at a mere 5% operational capacity due to ongoing maintenance issues, significantly dampening the need for feedstock gas.

Weather Could Offer Temporary Relief (Or Not)

Northern and central regions might catch a break with colder weather systems bringing precipitation from Friday through Monday, which typically spikes heating demand. However, energy forecasters expect this bump to be fleeting—demand will remain subdued through Thursday before potentially ticking higher near week’s end. It’s hardly the sustained demand catalyst traders need.

Where Natural Gas Prices Might Settle

The consensus from energy analysts? Bearish pressure persists. Energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates projects prices could stabilize around the $1.70 level in the near term, though significant downside surprises aren’t guaranteed given prevailing oversupply conditions. April delivery futures touched $1.732 on Tuesday after hitting a three-week low, but the recovery proved lackluster—a telltale sign of weak underlying interest.

The bottom line: US natural gas remains caught between technical weakness, structural supply excess, and tepid demand. Until something fundamentally shifts—whether that’s surprise LNG outages resolving faster than expected or a genuine demand resurgence—expect this energy market to grind sideways to lower.