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Soybeans Rally Stalls as Thursday Session Opens Weaker
After a strong Wednesday close, soybeans are pulling back with early Thursday declines of 1-2 cents. The commodity saw significant momentum the previous day, with front-month contracts gaining 10-11 cents as futures trading remained active. Open interest expanded by 4,067 contracts through the session.
The cash market reflected that strength, with the cmdtyView national average cash bean price climbing 11.5 cents to settle at $9.94 3/4. However, the soybean complex showed mixed performance: soymeal futures jumped between $3.70 and $6.80, while soy oil futures retreated 8-18 points on the day.
Delivery Activity and Contract Positioning
Overnight delivery notices totaled 142 contracts against January soybeans, with 70 deliveries for bean oil. This activity suggests participants are actively managing positions ahead of key data releases.
What’s Coming: USDA Export and Production Data
The USDA has returned to its standard Export Sales reporting schedule. Analysts are forecasting 0.75-1.3 million metric tons of soybeans from the 2025/26 crop will be sold for export during the week starting January 1st. Exports for the following marketing year (2026/27) are projected in a much tighter 0-300,000 MT range.
Soybean meal export bookings are estimated between 100,000-350,000 MT, with soy oil expected at 0-30,000 MT.
A major milestone arrives Monday when the USDA releases its Crop Production report. The final 2025 soybean yield estimate is anticipated at 52.7 bushels per acre, with total production pegged at 4.23 billion bushels based on Bloomberg’s analyst survey. This data could shift market sentiment significantly.
Contract Settlement Overview
January 26 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.52 3/4 (+10 3/4 cents), currently trading down 1 3/4 cents
March 26 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.67 (+10 3/4 cents), currently down 1 1/4 cents
May 26 Soybeans: Closed Wednesday at $10.78 3/4 (+10 3/4 cents), currently down 1 cent
Cash Bean: $9.94 3/4 (+11 1/2 cents from prior session)
The morning weakness after Wednesday’s gains is typical consolidation behavior as traders digest export expectations and await Monday’s USDA crop data.