#国际地缘局势影响 The bottom of the crypto market has been formed, just waiting for a rebound?

For the market, escalating geopolitical conflicts usually benefit safe-haven assets or military stocks. However, everyone needs to understand the logic behind these series of actions, because 2026 is Trump's midterm election year, and he must maintain his advantage in Congress. Voters care most about two things: the economy and inflation. Stimulating the economy relies on printing money, but excessive money issuance can push up inflation, especially oil prices (American consumers are extremely sensitive to gasoline prices), which can lead to a loss of votes. Therefore, controlling oil prices becomes key. Venezuela's massive oil reserves, if controlled by the US and used to suppress global oil prices, could create room for large-scale money printing. Once inflation pressures are alleviated due to controlled oil prices, fiscal policy and the Federal Reserve can more aggressively release liquidity. At that point, the flood of liquidity will flow into risk assets, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many altcoins are expected to surge significantly. However, cryptocurrency trends are not solely determined by liquidity. If a bubble in fields like AI bursts in 2026, even if the Fed continues to print money, the market may first experience a deep correction. In summary, Trump's motive to print money for election purposes does exist, but whether inflation can be smoothly suppressed remains to be seen.
On the institutional side, JPMorgan Chase, MicroStrategy, and Ark Invest are all continuously "bullish," and everyone believes that the crypto sell-off is nearing its end, with Bitcoin showing signs of bottoming out.
However, data shows that recent Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds are still net outflows, and the data interval used for this conclusion may be relatively short. If major positive news truly arrives, it would require the US to start using national funds to buy Bitcoin from 2026 onward to advance its "Bitcoin strategic reserve" goal. Considering Trump's style and the need to boost his midterm campaign, such aggressive policies are not impossible.
Morgan Stanley is also entering the crypto ETF space, with product lines covering not only Bitcoin and Ethereum but also Solana. This further confirms institutional favoritism towards Solana. Last week, about $100 million worth of assets were transferred onto Ethereum. The total stablecoin supply across the network slightly decreased, but Ethereum and BNB chains saw growth.
Currently, the core narrative in the crypto world still revolves around the US political cycle and liquidity expectations. Trump's actions in Venezuela are widely interpreted as paving the way for the midterm elections and preparing for a large liquidity injection in 2026. Yesterday, he also accused Federal Reserve Chair Powell of corruption, but in fact, all these moves aim to open up "printing space." Meanwhile, institutional deployment is accelerating (from ETFs to payments), and some established altcoins are recovering as their fundamentals improve. With the resurgence of old-school altcoins like SOL, XRP, and ADA, the market swings between panic and greed. Once market liquidity is opened up by Trump, the real bull market will truly arrive.