US Soybean Price Advances Gain Momentum in Mid-Session Trading

The US soybean complex is posting solid gains during today’s mid-session, with the futures market showing meaningful strength across multiple contracts. January 26 Soybeans are trading at $10.52 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents, while the nearby cash market for soybeans stands at $9.91, representing a 3-cent uptick. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price reflects this momentum with the 3-cent premium. March and May contracts are also participating in the rally, with Mar 26 Soybeans advancing 2 3/4 cents to $10.64 and May 26 Soybeans climbing 2 1/2 cents to $10.75 3/4.

Supportive Complex Moves Across the Board

The strength isn’t isolated to soybeans alone. Soymeal futures have captured attention with a 30-cent jump to $1.20 on Friday, while Soy Oil futures moved 30 to 40 points higher during the session. Overnight activity included 84 additional deliveries against January soybeans, accompanied by 52 issuances for bean meal and 166 deliveries against January soybean oil, indicating active physical market engagement.

Export Commitments Lag Seasonal Pace

US soybean export dynamics reveal a more cautious picture beneath today’s surface strength. As of January 1st, USDA Export Sales data shows 28.576 million metric tons in export commitments, representing only 29% of the comparable period in the 2024/25 season and trailing the USDA’s export projection by 16 percentage points. Current sales pace stands at 64% of the forecast versus the typical 82% seasonal average. Shipments present an even starker contrast, down 45% year-over-year at 16.347 MMT, which constitutes just 37% of the USDA forecast and significantly lags the historical 57% average pace.

Chinese Demand Signals and Market Expectations

Sinograin, China’s state-backed commodity stockpiler, has thrown an interesting variable into the mix by announcing an auction of 1.1 million metric tons of imported soybeans sourced from 2022-2025 inventories, scheduled for January 13. This move signals ongoing Chinese market activity despite broader demand concerns. Looking ahead, the market is preparing for Monday’s WASDE release, with Bloomberg’s analyst survey expecting 2025/26 soybean ending stocks to reach 295 million bushels—a 5-million-bushel monthly increase. This data point could provide critical direction for the US soybean price trend in the days ahead, potentially influencing whether today’s mid-session strength becomes part of a larger rally or represents a temporary counter-trend move.