Recently, market fluctuations have indeed been quite frequent, and many friends who have recently entered the market are asking, "Is this the end of the bull market?" But I have to say, I have experienced two complete bull and bear cycles, and oscillations and corrections are actually the most common phenomena in a bull market. There's no need to be overly nervous.



Why am I still bullish? Mainly because these factors are changing.

First is the liquidity environment. Next week, QT balance sheet reduction is basically going to be officially implemented. In simple terms, the central bank will stop withdrawing money from the market—this means market liquidity will significantly loosen. For risk assets to rebound, there must be money first, and the crypto space will naturally benefit. This is the fundamental condition for the continuation of the bull market.

Second, regulatory uncertainty is fading. The recent regulatory turbulence has now settled, and the crypto industry no longer needs to be on high alert every day. Once risks are controllable, new capital will be willing to enter, and the market won't be disrupted by sudden policy negative news.

The third signal is the expectation of interest rate cuts. The FOMC meeting on October 30th is highly likely to signal a rate cut. Once in a loosening cycle, investors will be more actively investing in high-risk assets, which is a clear positive for the crypto market.

Look at gold's performance—it's been weakening recently. What does this indicate? The market's risk appetite is recovering. People are no longer solely pursuing safe-haven assets but are also willing to earn risk premiums. This return of "risk-taking sentiment" is a precursor to funds preparing to flow back into the crypto space.

The last angle is the movement of institutions. The number of bullish options (CALLs) for crypto-related assets like CRCL and COIN has surged recently. This isn't retail traders' play; it's clearly institutions positioning in advance. Their capital flows often reflect future trends ahead of time.

My advice to beginners: don't mess around with small coins; mainstream coins like BTC and ETH are more stable. Have confidence in the bull market, but don't put all your living expenses into it. Proper position management and stop-losses are essential.

The bull market has never been a straight line up; staying calm is the key to reaping the final dividends. Opportunities always exist, but impulsiveness often comes at a cost.
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LiquidityWitchvip
· 8h ago
Liquidity loosening makes everything easier to discuss, but I still think beginners shouldn't get too excited, as it's easy to get cut. Large institutional call orders do indicate some activity, but retail investors following the trend usually end up pretty badly. The weakening of gold is a good signal; risk assets should turn around. Position management is really the most overlooked aspect; many people missed out on the tail end of the bull market because of this. The real test will come after interest rate cuts, and it might be even more volatile than now.
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LiquiditySurfervip
· 8h ago
Institutions are quietly making their moves, while retail investors are still hesitating whether the bull market is over. Wake up, everyone.
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ColdWalletGuardianvip
· 8h ago
Liquidity easing is indeed reliable, but I'm a bit skeptical about the institutional layout part. How can retail investors see the data? That's right, beginners are easily scared out; we've seen many oscillations and pullbacks over the years. The signal of gold weakening is good, but it still depends on the direction of the US dollar to be meaningful. Mainstream coins are stable, but the returns have indeed become quite ordinary. Wait, where did you see the data for your CALL orders? Can you share it? Position management is a classic topic, but few people can really execute it well. If this round of rate cuts actually happens, there should be a reaction, but we need to wait and see the timing.
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DegenApeSurfervip
· 8h ago
Liquidity easing is indeed a factor, but the surge in institutional call orders is really worth pondering.
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SudoRm-RfWallet/vip
· 8h ago
The most convincing part of the surge in institutional call orders is that this is a real signal of genuine money, while retail traders just talk big every day and don't count. It's good to be optimistic, but really don't go all in. I've already seen people around me blow up their positions and lose their mindset. The expectation of interest rate cuts is indeed the key point; we need to keep an eye on the FOMC meeting. I didn't expect gold to weaken before, but it actually makes sense and is quite logical. The biggest problem for beginners is their mindset. During oscillations and pullbacks, they start doubting life, not understanding that this is normal in a bull market. Liquidity is a complex topic, but basically it's about whether you have money; no money, no rise. Once the regulatory storm truly lands, the psychological pressure will definitely ease quite a bit, at least you won't have to worry about being educated every day. My question is, does the surge in call orders also mean that institutions are using this as a routine to cut leeks?
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