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Recently, market fluctuations have indeed been quite frequent, and many friends who have recently entered the market are asking, "Is this the end of the bull market?" But I have to say, I have experienced two complete bull and bear cycles, and oscillations and corrections are actually the most common phenomena in a bull market. There's no need to be overly nervous.
Why am I still bullish? Mainly because these factors are changing.
First is the liquidity environment. Next week, QT balance sheet reduction is basically going to be officially implemented. In simple terms, the central bank will stop withdrawing money from the market—this means market liquidity will significantly loosen. For risk assets to rebound, there must be money first, and the crypto space will naturally benefit. This is the fundamental condition for the continuation of the bull market.
Second, regulatory uncertainty is fading. The recent regulatory turbulence has now settled, and the crypto industry no longer needs to be on high alert every day. Once risks are controllable, new capital will be willing to enter, and the market won't be disrupted by sudden policy negative news.
The third signal is the expectation of interest rate cuts. The FOMC meeting on October 30th is highly likely to signal a rate cut. Once in a loosening cycle, investors will be more actively investing in high-risk assets, which is a clear positive for the crypto market.
Look at gold's performance—it's been weakening recently. What does this indicate? The market's risk appetite is recovering. People are no longer solely pursuing safe-haven assets but are also willing to earn risk premiums. This return of "risk-taking sentiment" is a precursor to funds preparing to flow back into the crypto space.
The last angle is the movement of institutions. The number of bullish options (CALLs) for crypto-related assets like CRCL and COIN has surged recently. This isn't retail traders' play; it's clearly institutions positioning in advance. Their capital flows often reflect future trends ahead of time.
My advice to beginners: don't mess around with small coins; mainstream coins like BTC and ETH are more stable. Have confidence in the bull market, but don't put all your living expenses into it. Proper position management and stop-losses are essential.
The bull market has never been a straight line up; staying calm is the key to reaping the final dividends. Opportunities always exist, but impulsiveness often comes at a cost.