Bitcoin has not truly surpassed 100K USD in real value - Galaxy Research announces shocking findings

Key Points

• The nominal all-time high of Bitcoin is $126,000 (October 2025), but only equivalent to $99,848 in 2020 dollars
• US inflation has eroded 20% of the dollar’s purchasing power since 2020, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Forecasts suggest it could drop to $65,000 in 2026, but demand for inflation hedging remains strong

Surprising Fact: Bitcoin has never truly surpassed the $100K mark

Although Bitcoin reached a nominal peak of $126,000 in October 2025, when adjusted for inflation using 2020 dollars as a standard, the real high was only $99,848. This notable finding was revealed by Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, as he analyzed the impact of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) on the real value of leading cryptocurrencies.

This discovery is not just an academic number but reflects a harsh reality: inflation has eroded Bitcoin’s seemingly impressive gains. Today’s dollar only buys 80% of its 2020 value, equivalent to a 1.25 times increase in commodity prices. The recent CPI indicates a 2.7% annual increase, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures on the US economy.

Weak dollar - Catalyst for a hedge investment wave

Interestingly, the weakening of the US dollar creates opportunities for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined 11% in 2025, reaching 97.8, its lowest in three years in September. This move has stimulated a “wave of inflation hedge investments,” as investors shift toward assets like Bitcoin to preserve value.

US inflation peaked at 9% in mid-2022 after COVID-19, and although it has fallen to its lowest since 2021, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This context explains why investors continue to seek hedging tools despite regulatory concerns and negative forecasts.

Current Market: From 90K to 100K, and bigger questions

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $90.66K, making debates about the $100K level more heated than ever. Some analyses forecast Bitcoin could drop to $65,000 in 2026 amid regulatory speculation, but on-chain evidence and actions by major institutions tell a different story.

VanEck states that recent movements are just healthy market corrections, not a collapse. On-chain activity shows clear divergence: trading products on exchanges are experiencing outflows, but corporate treasuries are still buying aggressively, and long-term investors are holding their positions. Miner capitulation and reduced risk appetite are often seen as contrarian indicators, signaling upcoming price stability.

In summary, when considering Bitcoin’s real value rather than just its nominal figure, the story becomes more complex. Investors need to understand that the $100K target is not meaningless—it’s a symbol of confidence that Bitcoin can withstand global inflation pressures.