## The Three Major Predictions in the Crypto Market: Low Probability of Pre-Christmas Market Rally

As 2026 approaches winter, the cryptocurrency market is filled with uncertainties. Participants on the prediction platform Myriad are betting on several major events, with the most attention on whether the traditional holiday rally will occur at year-end. According to the latest forecast data, market optimism for the Christmas season has noticeably cooled.

### Christmas Season Market Probability Rapidly Declines

By mid-January, confidence among predictors that mainstream crypto assets will reach target prices before December 25 has significantly decreased. The Myriad market requires at least three assets—Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), Solana(SOL), and BNB—to hit their respective target prices to consider the "market rally" as confirmed.

Current data shows:
- **Bitcoin(BTC)** current price $90.83K, 30-day increase of +0.31%
- **Ethereum(ETH)** current price $3.12K, 30-day increase of +0.02%
- **Solana(SOL)** current price $139.89, 30-day increase of +4.10%
- **BNB** current price $901.40, 30-day increase of +1.34%

The target prices set by the market are $99,000 for BTC, $3,900 for ETH, and $199 for SOL. Compared to current prices, all target prices are at least 13% higher, making the required upward movement increasingly unrealistic within the remaining time.

As of last Thursday, the odds against a Christmas rally occurring have soared to 96%. This is about 12% higher than a week prior, reflecting that investor expectations for a year-end rebound are gradually diminishing. Over the past month, major cryptocurrencies have performed poorly, trending downward overall, further dampening the market’s Christmas rally outlook.

### Political Pardon Predictions Spark Community Debate

Beyond traditional price forecasts, political events have also become a focus of prediction markets. A key figure is Keonne Rodriguez, developer of the Samourai Wallet, who was sentenced to five years in prison in November for developing Bitcoin mixing tools.

Recently, local political leaders stated they would "consider" pardoning Rodriguez, but predictors on Myriad generally hold a pessimistic view. Data shows that 80% of the market consensus opposes a pardon before February 2026. Although privacy advocates and the developer community continue to speak out for Rodriguez, the probability of this outcome, according to market forecasts, is considered quite low.

However, this case has sparked deeper discussions within the crypto community—covering core issues such as developer rights and the legality of privacy tools. In comparison, predictors are cautious about the past pardon records of political figures, as precedents are uncommon.

### Entertainment Predictions: Character Deaths and Survival Become New Topics

Interestingly, the crypto community is also forecasting the storyline of "Stranger Things" Season 5 on Myriad. Predictions about whether main character Steve Harrington will survive until the finale have attracted many participants.

Based on data up to last week, the market believes Steve has a higher chance of survival, with only a 17% probability of death. This is about 14 percentage points lower than the previous week’s death probability, possibly reflecting increased confidence from the plot developments in the first four episodes.

However, there are signs that the creators may be hinting at potential changes in the character’s fate. This prediction market will gradually reveal the answer from December 25 until the end of the year, when the finale airs. According to market rules, a clear on-screen confirmation of a character’s death is required; ambiguous endings (such as disappearance or off-screen fate) will be judged as "survived."

### Market Reflection: The Investment Psychology Behind Predictions

These three prediction cases reveal a common feature of the current crypto market—cautiousness toward optimistic expectations. Whether it’s the year-end rally, political pardons, or entertainment speculation, market participants tend to favor conservative outcomes.

This reflects that, in the early 2026 market environment, investors are pricing in uncertainties with a discount to optimistic scenarios. As the Christmas season fades, the next market focus will shift to the final outcome of Rodriguez’s pardon prediction market on January 29 and the airing of the "Stranger Things" finale.

For participants paying attention to crypto market dynamics, these prediction markets not only provide data references but also reflect the community’s collective judgment on multiple events across different fields.