U.S. stock market experiences sharp correction | Fed's third rate cut sparks policy disagreements; tech stock valuations come under pressure, AI prospects questioned; marijuana concept stocks迎来政策期待 (December 15, 2025 Market Analysis)

1. Focus Event Summary

Latest Developments from the Federal Reserve

Rate Cut Approved but Opposition Grows: Fed Cuts Benchmark Rate by 25 Basis Points as Scheduled

In line with market expectations, the Federal Reserve announced its third rate cut of the year this week, reducing rates by 25 basis points. However, the vote was not unanimous; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and newly appointed Philadelphia Fed member Posen voted against. This reveals clear disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation outlook.

• Key Points: Goolsbee prefers to wait for more data confirming a downward inflation trend; Posen emphasizes employment risks and advocates for continued easing; Cleveland Fed’s Harker maintains a hawkish stance.
• Market Impact: The rate cut boosts economic growth expectations, fueling rotation into cyclical stocks, but policy uncertainty also pushes bond yields higher, putting pressure on high-valued tech stocks.

Trump Identifies New Fed Chair Candidate: Kevin Warsh Becomes New Policy Indicator

President-elect Trump publicly named Kevin Warsh as his preferred successor for Fed Chair, with a scheduled start in May 2026. Warsh’s policy stance aligns with Trump’s dovish rate cut preferences, and private contacts have occurred. Chief Economic Advisor Hasset emphasized that once appointed, Warsh would need to balance listening to the President and maintaining decision independence.

• Market Implication: Signals a potential shift toward a more moderate monetary policy path, raising expectations for rate cuts, but also sparking long-term discussions about Fed independence.

Global Commodity Market Trends

Gold Hits New Record High, Oil Prices Continue to Decline

Precious metals performed strongly, with spot gold reaching a record high of $4,381 per ounce, marking the best annual performance since 1979. US 10-year Treasury yields broke through 4.18%, and 30-year yields exceeded 4.85%. Crude oil remains under pressure due to weak global demand, with WTI hovering around $57/barrel and Brent around $61/barrel.

• Market Interpretation: Commodities show clear divergence; gold’s appeal as a safe haven remains strong, while weak oil prices reflect economic recovery uncertainties, posing downside risks to energy sector performance.

Macroeconomic Policy Trends

US Lifts Sanctions on Belarus Potash, Bilateral Relations Ease

Washington announced the removal of restrictions on Belarus’s potash industry, responding to the release of 123 prisoners by Belarus. Lukashenko held closed-door talks with US envoy Cole, focusing on economic cooperation. This move indicates a shift in the Trump administration’s foreign policy approach.

• Market Insight: Stability in global fertilizer supply chains benefits agriculture stocks, but geopolitical reactions could impact raw material prices.

EU Freezes Russian Central Bank Assets, Ukraine Aid Progresses

The EU agreed to indefinitely freeze Russian Central Bank assets within Europe, overcoming opposition from Hungary and others, to ensure funding for Ukraine’s compensation loans. Russia has filed a lawsuit with the European Clearing Bank.

• Impact Assessment: Rising geopolitical tensions may increase demand for safe assets; European energy and financial markets face uncertainty. Progress in the Germany-Ukraine-Ukraine trilateral talks is reinforced by this measure.

US SEC Commissioner Criticizes Deregulation Trend, Warns of Market “Casinoization”

Outgoing SEC Commissioner Crenshaw issued comments criticizing recent deregulation waves, warning that markets could turn into casinos, benefiting manipulators. She emphasized that investor protection and long-term financing should not be sacrificed amid regulatory easing.

• Long-term Significance: Highlights policy disagreements within the regulatory environment; short-term may suppress high-risk asset speculation, but long-term benefits market health and balances Fed’s moderate stance.

2. US Stock Market Overview

Major Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.51% daily, up 1% weekly, supported by value stock rotation and optimistic rate cut expectations
• S&P 500: Down 1.07% daily, down 0.63% weekly, retreating from all-time highs, with tech sector under pressure
• Nasdaq: Down 1.69% daily, down 1.62% weekly, dominated by concerns over tech valuations and AI bubble

Tech Giants’ Stock Movements

Nvidia fell 3%, amid rising doubts about AI investment returns and lowered chip demand outlook. Google, despite launching AI voice translation, declined over 1%, weighed down by overall tech sector pressure. Microsoft dropped more than 1%, facing headwinds from lagging AI infrastructure expansion. Amazon and Meta both declined over 1%, impacted by reevaluation of e-commerce, cloud, social media growth, and ad markets.

Tesla rose over 2%, as EV demand recovery offset tech sector weakness. Apple remained neutral with little change. Overall, most of the “Big Seven” tech giants declined, mainly due to quarterly AI spending not meeting expectations, prompting capital flow from growth to value stocks.

Sector Rotation Observation

Semiconductor Industry Experiences Largest Decline

Broadcom plunged 11%, Micron down over 6%. Despite strong AI order reports, gross margins compressed from 79% to 76.9%, raising concerns about infrastructure build-out speed.

Memory Chip Stocks Under Pressure

Western Digital’s SanDisk nearly fell 15%, with peers also declining. While AI storage demand offers some support, high short-term valuations trigger profit-taking.

Cannabis Stocks Surge

Tilray soared 44%, Canopy Growth up nearly 54%. Market anticipates potential policy shifts by the Trump administration on cannabis regulation, signaling strong optimism.

Auto Manufacturers Outperform

Rivian jumped 17%, Polestar up over 19%. Advances in autonomous driving tech and subscription services expand competitive advantages.

Nuclear and Mining Concepts Drop Sharply

Oklo declined over 15%, Hut 8 fell nearly 12%. Fluctuations in energy demand, Bitcoin price declines, and regulatory uncertainties exert triple pressure.

3. In-Depth Company Analysis

Broadcom Chip Empire’s Pain

Event Details

Broadcom reported quarterly revenue of $19.1 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expected $18.5 billion. However, AI revenue forecasts fell short, and gross margin declined from 79% to 76.9%, causing an 11% drop in stock price. The company has $73 billion in pending AI orders to be delivered over the next six quarters; while a $11 billion server order from Anthropic indicates strong demand, delivery costs have squeezed margins.

Analyst Insights

Major banks like JPMorgan note that while AI spending in 2026 may reach new highs, earnings visibility remains limited. Analysts remain optimistic about Broadcom’s chip design position but cautious about near-term margin pressures.

Investment Advice

Short-term volatility may intensify; monitor long-term AI demand support. Value investors may consider entry after adjustments.

Oracle Data Center Expansion Faces Bottlenecks

Event Details

Oracle announced delays in some data center projects for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages. Poor quarterly results further dampen confidence, with stock down over 6%, retracing 45% from September highs. The company denies full delays, but market perceives infrastructure bottlenecks.

Analyst Opinions

Views are mixed: some see delays as normal supply chain issues; JPMorgan remains bullish on Oracle Cloud’s growth potential, ranking it alongside Amazon as a top AI investment, with expected expenditures exceeding $400 billion.

Investment Tips

The AI bull market enters its fourth year; Oracle needs to demonstrate execution capability. Investors should watch for supply chain improvements and avoid impulsive high-level buying.

Lululemon as a Consumer Recovery Indicator

Event Details

Lululemon reported Q3 EPS of $2.59, well above expectations of $2.22, with revenue up 7% YoY to $2.6 billion; international sales grew 18%. Q4 revenue guidance is $3.5–3.58 billion, with annual target of $10.96–11 billion. The current CEO will step down in January next year, transitioning to co-CEO, and stock rose 9%.

Market Consensus

Analysts praise its international expansion and strong recovery signals, though CEO transition introduces some uncertainty. Most have raised target prices, recognizing its leadership in the consumer sector.

Strategic Advice

Recovery in consumer demand favors long-term holdings; mid-term suggested holding, with close monitoring of new leadership’s impact on brand direction.

Rivian Autonomous Driving Service Breakthrough

Event Details

Rivian launched its autonomous driving subscription service Autonomy+, priced at $49.99/month or a one-time $2,500 fee, supported by new AI chips, aiming for full off-road hands-free driving by early 2026. The stock rose 17%.

Institutional View

Investment banks see this as challenging Tesla’s monopoly position. Wall Street is optimistic about Rivian’s market share expansion but advises monitoring subscription penetration rates.

Entry Strategy

Driven by technological innovation, investors should track sales data; short-term policies supporting EV industry are positive.

SpaceX Plans for IPO in 2026

Event Details

SpaceX has informed employees of plans to go public in 2026, with internal valuation at $421 per share, raising the company’s valuation to $800 billion, doubling in six months. CFO emphasizes schedule uncertainties; funding aims to expand space economy.

Market Perception

Analysts compare SpaceX to Anthropic ($350 billion valuation) and OpenAI ($500 billion), optimistic about long-term potential in space and AI crossover.

Risk Warning

High valuation entails risks, but prospects for space economy are promising; liquidity post-IPO warrants close evaluation.

4. Futures Market Outlook

Data Schedule

(Partial data may be adjusted due to release timing)

Important Event Alerts

• Fed Committee Speech: Today 09:30 ET – Focus on latest monetary policy stance, inflation, and employment assessment
• Warnings and Statements: This information is aggregated via AI search, manually verified and published, not investment advice