Falling inflation in the USA driven by profit-taking – gold and silver lose momentum

On Thursday’s trading session in the US markets, published consumer data surprised analysts. The Consumer Price Index for December 2025 showed a year-over-year increase of just 2.7% – the lowest level since July of this year. This was significantly below market forecasts of a 3.1% increase and also below the July result of 3.0%. Even more surprising were the readings of core inflation (excluding energy and food costs), which stabilized at 2.6% year-over-year – this year’s low since March 2021, below the expected 3.0%.

Initial rise in precious metals crushed by profit-taking

Unexpectedly weak inflation data initially supported the momentum of gold, which during the peak trading phase reached the highest US level in two months. Silver also rebounded. However, short-term speculative decisions in the futures market ultimately led to a downward close:

• Gold futures (February 2026) fell by $8.3 to $4,334.08
• Silver futures (March 2026) weakened by $1.516 to $65.385

Due to the temporary closure of US government institutions, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect inflation data for October 2025, and monthly data for November remained unavailable. However, the agency confirmed that from September to November, the index increased by a total of 0.2%.

Dovish Fed faction gains arguments

The published figures fueled the internal Fed discussion regarding future rate cuts. The market suggests that there could be two reductions in 2026, with futures pricing in a total cut of about 62 basis points. However, the CME FedWatch tool indicates only a 28.8% chance of a cut at the January meeting – the Fed is most likely to keep rates unchanged.

The weaker dollar (traded at 98.47, with a high of 98.56), supported yields on assets denominated in the domestic currency. The yield on the 10-year US benchmark bond fell to 4.116% after the CPI announcement.

Changes in central bank leadership under scrutiny

President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled the need for significant rate cuts. On Wednesday, he stated that he would soon reveal a candidate for the new Fed chair – a person “advocating for deep easing.” Earlier, media reported potential candidates: White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset, former Fed board member Kevin Warsza, and current board member Christopher Waller. Waller noted on Wednesday that policymakers should not rush with aggressive changes, and could act gradually – rates may be lowered toward a neutral level, estimated to be 50-100 basis points below current levels.

Mixed employment data

The number of new unemployment benefit claims was 224,000 (below the forecast of 225,000 and the previous 237,000). The number of continuing claims was 1.897 million (below expectations of 1.94 million but above the previous 1.83 million). The four-week moving average increased from 217,000 to 217,500.

Goldman Sachs: gold still has potential

Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that the impressive rise in gold futures to record levels in 2025 may continue. In Thursday’s report, they forecast a 14% increase in gold to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 in the baseline scenario, which has growth potential. Central bank demand will remain a key factor – Goldman Sachs estimates an average monthly accumulation of about 70 tons, driven by geopolitical turmoil and risk hedging.

The barrel of oil price fell to around $56.50. Rising tensions between the US and Venezuela supported capital inflows into safe assets. The most active gold futures contracts lost 0.3%, reaching $4,358 per ounce, despite gains recorded during most of the morning.