The "cat and mouse game" behind the policy: the European Central Bank releases a report stating that "the high market share of Bitcoin threatens financial stability, and recommends strengthening global regulatory coordination"

2026-01-12 09:44:04

On the surface, it appears to be a risk warning, but in essence, it is a power anxiety

· Bitcoin’s market cap is 2 trillion USD, less than one-tenth of the global gold market cap. How can it be a “threat to financial stability”? · The truth is: traditional central banks are discovering that their currency issuance rights are being eroded by a decentralized system. This is an unprecedented challenge since 2008.

The “Four-Step” Regulatory Script ① Stigmatization Phase (2011-2017): “Money laundering, drug trafficking, Ponzi schemes” ② Testing Control Phase (2018-2022): Exchange licenses, KYC, tax tracking ③ Integration and Regulation Phase (2023-2025): Spot ETF, custody compliance ④ Sovereign Confrontation Phase (2026-?): CBDC vs Bitcoin, direct confrontation

We are currently in the transition from phase ③ to phase ④. Every time regulators speak out, ask: What practical effect do they want to achieve?

Response Strategies

· Short-term (1-4 weeks): Regulatory negative news releases → market panic and decline → often a bottom-fishing opportunity (repeated more than 7 times in history) · Mid-term (3-6 months): The tug-of-war between the “institutional bull” driven by compliance progress and “sovereign suppression” · Long-term: Bitcoin’s ultimate opponent is not the SEC, but the central bank digital currencies (CBDC) of various countries. The real war begins then.

· Mid-term (3-6 months): The tug-of-war between the “institutional bull” driven by compliance progress and “sovereign suppression” · Long-term: Bitcoin’s ultimate opponent is not the SEC, but the central bank digital currencies (CBDC) of various countries. The real war begins then.

· Long-term: Bitcoin’s ultimate opponent is not the SEC, but the central bank digital currencies (CBDC) of various countries. The real war begins then.

BTC0,61%

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