Bitcoin Dilemma: Is This the Beginning of a Bear Market or the Eve of a Decade-Long Bull Run?

Cryptocurrency investors are facing an unprecedented dilemma. As we enter 2026, opinions on Bitcoin’s future trend are increasingly divided—some firmly believe a long-term bull market is about to begin, while others warn that a new bear market is imminent. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently valued at approximately $90.91K, with a decline of -4.01% over the past year. Behind this seemingly modest figure lies industry-wide differing interpretations of the bear and bull market prospects.

The Optimists’ Ten-Year Bull Market Theory

Jan3 founder Samson Mow and renowned analyst PlanC have recently sparked widespread discussion. Mow argues that the past 12 months should be viewed as the tail end of a bear market, not a crash, and predicts that Bitcoin is at the start of a decade-long bull run, potentially extending to 2035. PlanC further adds that investors who have endured the 2025 bear market have already survived the toughest period.

This judgment is based on Bitcoin’s historical patterns. According to on-chain data, Bitcoin has never experienced two consecutive years of red annual K-lines, meaning that if 2025 indeed turns out to be a down year, the probability of an uptrend in 2026 will significantly increase. It is this cyclical characteristic that has attracted long-term investors to view the current correction as a strategic opportunity.

Meanwhile, market liquidity signals are also conveying optimistic messages. Recently, net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown a clear rebound, especially with the expansion of large asset portfolios in December, indicating that institutional investors remain confident in the long-term outlook. The entry of such institutional funds is often a key signal before a bull market begins.

The Pessimists’ Bear Market Warning

In contrast, another group of analysts remains cautious about 2026. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has provided specific bear market predictions, suggesting Bitcoin could fall to around $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026. Fidelity Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer also describes 2026 as Bitcoin’s “rest year,” implying that prices may fluctuate around $65,000.

These warnings are not unfounded. As of December 26, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 20 points and has remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone for over two weeks. Investors’ panic sentiment directly reflects market caution toward short-term risks—under such psychological conditions, rebounds are often suppressed.

Market Reality: Opportunities Amid Uncertainty

In fact, both optimistic and pessimistic voices have their reasons. Strategy CEO Phong Le believes that although short-term sentiment and prices may continue to be pressured, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong. Matt Hougan, Director of Investment at Bitwise, straightforwardly states that 2026 will witness a new upward cycle for Bitcoin.

This means that Bitcoin’s outlook is not a binary of bear or bull markets, but a gray area full of variables. In the short term, fear and uncertainty will continue to dominate market sentiment, but the long-term bull story is still quietly progressing. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, investors need to evaluate risks more cautiously than ever before. The true answer may only surface by the end of 2026, or even much later.