Key accumulation signals before Ethereum's strong rebound in 2026

On-Chain Activity Stability Signals Bullish Outlook

Ethereum is currently priced at $3.12K, with a 24-hour increase of +0.50%, and a market cap surpassing $376.64B. Although recent prices have repeatedly tested the $3,200-$3,300 range, on-chain data reveals a different story. Daily active addresses remain steady at 350,000 to 400,000; while not experiencing explosive growth, this stability amid sideways price movement is itself a positive sign. It indicates that network demand has not waned, and user engagement’s resilience suggests the market is in a buildup phase rather than a decline.

The “Silent Accumulation” Phenomenon in the Derivatives Market

Currently, Ethereum’s open interest hovers between $19-20 billion, approaching historical highs, yet this increase occurs precisely during a period of price stagnation. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is crucial for traders. In a sideways market, continuous growth in open interest typically signifies market participants preparing for larger volatility, rather than confirming the current trend. In other words, traders are “stockpiling ammunition,” waiting for a breakout in either direction.

Meanwhile, the Ethereum reserves on exchanges continue to decline, indicating holders prefer to move assets off exchanges. Historically, decreasing exchange balances are associated with increased price stability, especially during periods of rising derivatives activity. This suggests that there is strength being accumulated in spot positions, setting the stage for the next upward move.

Compression and Breakout Expectations in Price Trends

From a technical perspective, ETH has formed a classic compression pattern, establishing an ascending support line and a relatively fixed resistance level. The RSI indicator remains in the neutral zone, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This scenario often precedes high-volatility breakouts. Each test of the $3,200-$3,300 resistance zone is accumulating energy for a potential breakout.

Two Possible Scenarios for the 2026 Uptrend Channel

In an upward breakout scenario, if ETH can hold above $3,200-$3,300 and turn this into support, the first target is around $3,500. If this level is confirmed, the next upward channel could reach the $3,800-$4,000 range, aligning with the first half of 2026.

Conversely, caution is warranted regarding the key support at $2,900-$3,000. If this support is broken, it would weaken bullish expectations and could lead to a deeper correction, possibly down to the $2,600-$2,550 zone, where a new demand cycle might then restart.

The Market’s Silent Buildup Phase

Ethereum is currently in a delicate stage: fundamentals are positive (on-chain engagement, derivatives positions, spot accumulation), but prices are indeed stagnant. This contradiction is itself the most interesting aspect—it indicates that the market is accumulating energy. Compression patterns have historically preceded significant volatility; once one of these key levels is broken and confirmed, a chain reaction could be triggered.

Most importantly: whether it’s a breakout or a breakdown, clear price confirmation is needed. Until that moment arrives, Ethereum will continue to fluctuate within the range, but this sideways movement itself signals that a larger wave is imminent.