The global financial landscape is quietly reshaping. The unified long cycle of easing and tightening that followed the pandemic has essentially come to an end. Now, central banks around the world face a series of diverging paths—some cutting interest rates, some raising them, and others holding steady—no longer able to follow a synchronized rhythm.

The main culprit driving this divergence has been given a name by the market: "Trump Variable." Since returning to the White House in early 2025, this American leader's policy mix has been creating ripples in the global financial markets. Aggressive tariff threats, uncertainty in trade patterns, coupled with frequent pressure on the Federal Reserve and public questioning of policy independence, have made "What will the US do next" a Damocles sword hanging over the heads of global central banks.

The problem is, central banks are now caught in the middle. On one hand, they need to stabilize their own inflation and growth; on the other, they must constantly monitor their currency exchange rates and cross-border capital flows—both of which have now become high-risk sensitive areas. In recent years, following the Fed’s rhythm could reduce external shocks, but when US policy itself becomes the greatest source of uncertainty, continuing to follow suit may instead exacerbate the situation. Central banks are discovering that "synchronization" is no longer a safe haven but rather an amplifier of risk.