2026-01-12 09:10:23

This week, the crypto market is facing a large-scale token unlock wave. According to Token Unlocks data, 8 tokens including ONDO and TRUMP will release over 2.8 billion tokens this week, with a market value exceeding $1 billion.

The two biggest impacts are: ONDO unlocking 1.71 billion tokens in a single day (equivalent to 17.1% of its circulating supply), and TRUMP unlocking 50 million tokens (accounting for 11.95%), with a combined value approaching $1 billion. Historically, within 30 days after such large unlocks, tokens typically experience an average decline of about 23%.

Currently, ONDO's support level is around $2.7. With such a large influx of circulating tokens, pressure is expected. As a popular meme coin, the 11.95% unlock of TRUMP may trigger retail investors to sell off in panic, causing a chain reaction. Even more concerning is that other popular tokens like ARB and STRK are also unlocking during the same period. If a "domino effect" occurs, market liquidity could rapidly dry up.

In practical trading, there are a few key points to watch: First, a "trap rally" often occurs three days before the unlock, so chasing high risks significant losses; second, the 24 hours after the unlock are usually the most intense selling period, so consider setting a 3%-5% stop-loss to protect your position; third, monitor the top ten holder addresses of these tokens, and if large transfers are detected, adjust your holdings immediately.

In the face of this unlock wave, only those who plan ahead can buy the dip; speculators will only get cut. Investors who survive this wave truly understand market cycles.

ONDO-3,29%

TRUMP-3,8%

ARB-3,86%

STRK-1,52%

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NotGonnaMakeIt

· 3h ago

It's another unlocking season. Is this really the time to cut the leeks?

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GamefiGreenie

· 4h ago

It's time to cut the leeks again, ONDO really can't withstand this wave.

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ser_ngmi

· 4h ago

It's that kind of big unlock again, the old routine, retail investors are about to be harvested once more. ONDO's 17% drop directly dumped the price; I'm just waiting to buy the dip. TRUMP's meme coin 11% unlock, hilarious, I already sold. History shows a 23% decline over 30 days, so just follow the pattern and don't make reckless moves. Before the unlock, there's hype; after the unlock, a dump. I see this cycle very clearly. Once the dominoes start falling, it's really unstoppable; liquidity dries up instantly. The 3-5% stop-loss recommendation is still worth listening to; otherwise, getting trapped would be too unfair. Pre-positioning is the key; those chasing the high should start regretting now.

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ForkMonger

· 4h ago

ngl the dominoes are already falling... governance attack vectors in these unlock mechanics are *chef's kiss* — systemic vulnerabilities on full display. ONDO's 17.1% flush? that's not a market dip, that's protocol darwinism in action. retail's about to get absolutely schooled on margin of disruption. the ones who see this as chaos are the ones who actually profit.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 4h ago

17.1% single-day unlock... this is truly a stress test, $2.7 can't hold the line at all, the technicals have already broken down completely. My quantitative model's signals are very clear: there will be a trap to the upside within the first three days of unlock, and retail investors will be cut again at that time. The TRUMP meme coin is even more outrageous, with 11.95% directly triggering a selling wave. I've already set my stop loss at 4%. Once the domino effect starts, ARB, STRK won't escape, and the moment liquidity dries up will be the most terrifying. Looking at the transfer trends of the top ten addresses, this is the only clue I can currently grasp. The difference between getting cut and bottom fishing is just a matter of mindset; it depends on whether you truly understand the cycle.

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