US inflation surprises to the downside, precious metals struggling to realize profits

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised the markets with CPI data well below expectations. The December 2025 consumer price index increased by 2.7% year over year, the lowest in the past six months and significantly below market forecasts of +3.1%. Notably, the core inflation figure, which excludes food and energy, reached +2.6% annually, the lowest since March 2021, further surprising to the downside compared to the 3.0% expectations.

The immediate impact on U.S. capital markets was significant. During Thursday’s U.S. session, gold prices quickly reversed the negative trend from the previous night, reaching the highest levels in the last sixty days. A similar reaction was seen in silver, which registered a decisive rebound. However, profit-taking operations by traders in the futures segment tempered the initial enthusiasm. February gold futures closed down $8.3 at $4,334.08 per ounce; March silver futures lost $1.516, closing at $65.385.

An important consideration concerns gaps in CPI data. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, statistical authorities did not collect information for October 2025, making October’s data unavailable and preventing the publication of November’s figures. Despite this, the biennial data between September and November show a total increase of 0.2%, a significant indication of ongoing disinflation.

These numbers provide ammunition to the “dove” members of the Federal Reserve, who advocate for further interest rate cuts. Current futures market quotations reflect this outlook: markets are now pricing in two total cuts of about 62 basis points in 2026. However, traders remain cautiously cautious regarding the Fed’s January meeting: the CME FedWatch Tool assigns only a 28.8% probability of a rate cut during that meeting.

In the broader context of global capital markets, the market has closely monitored additional factors. The dollar index contracted, which is traditionally favorable for precious metals. During the session, the index fluctuated around 98.47, with a daily peak at 98.56. The yield on 10-year Treasuries experienced a significant contraction following the CPI data release, falling to 4.116%. Crude oil is trading near $56.50 per barrel.

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela have driven inflows into safe-haven assets, further supporting precious metals. At the same time, attention remains focused on upcoming leadership changes at the Federal Reserve. President Trump has announced plans to soon name the next Fed chair, ideally a figure favorable to aggressive rate cuts. The main candidates under discussion include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh; recent reports suggest Christopher Waller has also been considered for the position. Waller, however, reiterated that policymakers consider it premature to adopt a strongly accommodative policy, supporting a gradual approach toward neutral rate levels, estimated to be 50 to 100 basis points below current levels.

U.S. labor market data offer mixed signals. Initial unemployment claims decreased to 224,000, slightly below estimates of 225,000 and the previous figure of 237,000. However, continuing claims rose to 1,897,000, a reading below (1,940,000) but above the previous value of 1,830,000. The four-week moving average slightly increased from 217,000 to 217,500.

Goldman Sachs has revised upward its outlook for precious metals in the coming year. According to the bank’s 2026 outlook, the momentum that drove gold futures to all-time highs in 2025 is expected to continue. The bank’s baseline projection anticipates a 14% increase in gold prices to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks. Central bank demand remains robust: Goldman Sachs estimates average acquisitions of 70 tons per month in 2026, driven by geopolitical considerations and the need to diversify risks.

In the short-term performance, the most actively traded gold futures closed down 0.3% at $4,358 per ounce, despite the buying activity that characterized most of the morning session.