Whale Accumulation Signals Potential Reversal Strength for XRP

XRP’s performance over the past month has been modest, with a slight positive shift of 0.64% in the last 30 days, while recent 24-hour trading shows a modest decline of 2.34% down to $2.04. Despite this mixed price action, the cryptocurrency is receiving significant attention due to emerging technical signals and remarkable shifts in large holder behavior—a combination that has potential to reshape near-term momentum.

The Whale Factor: Flipping From Selling to Buying Pressure

The critical distinction this time centers on megawhale positioning. During the previous bullish divergence attempt in early December, the largest wallet cohorts—those holding over 1 billion XRP—were net sellers. Between November 30 and December 4, the 1 billion+ wallet group reduced holdings from 25.34 billion to 25.16 billion XRP, while mid-tier whales (1 million to 10 million XRP holders) cut from 4.35 billion to 3.97 billion XRP. This selling activity suffocated the initial reversal attempt before it could gain traction.

The current environment presents a starkly different picture. Over the most recent 24-hour period, mega whales have undertaken aggressive accumulation, increasing their collective holdings from 25.47 billion to 27.47 billion XRP—representing approximately 2 billion XRP added to their positions. At the prevailing price level, this accumulation equates to roughly $3.6 billion worth of purchasing activity. Notably, while smaller whale tiers continue to reduce exposure, the dominant mega whale category now operates in full accumulation mode.

RSI Divergence Test: Technical Confirmation Emerges Again

Running parallel to the whale buying spree is a repeat of the bullish divergence pattern observed on technical charts. Between November 4 and December 31, XRP price formed a series of lower lows, yet the RSI (Relative Strength Index)—which measures momentum strength—consistently created higher lows. This classic bullish divergence indicates diminishing selling pressure and typically precedes downtrend reversals.

Interestingly, this same pattern materialized between November 4 and December 1, triggering a 12% bounce. That initial reversal collapsed, however, because price action lacked structural support from major wallet holders. Now, with both the divergence test reappearing and whale accumulation providing underlying support, the conditions have shifted materially in favor of a sustained reversal attempt.

Price Levels That Will Determine Success or Failure

For XRP to confirm this reversal thesis, specific technical milestones must be cleared. The immediate barrier sits at $1.92, which served as a resistance level on December 22 and has rejected repeated recovery attempts since that date. A decisive 12-hour candle close above $1.92 would constitute the first validation signal.

Should that resistance yield, the next contested zone emerges around $2.02. Beyond that, the $2.17 to $2.21 range—which capped the December bounce at its peak—becomes the major test of conviction. Conversely, a breakdown below the $1.77 support level would undermine the reversal narrative entirely, suggesting whale positioning arrived prematurely and the divergence is merely a false signal repeating the December disappointment.

Why This Attempt Carries Different Odds

The convergence of three factors distinguishes this divergence test from the failed November attempt: structural support from megawhale accumulation ($3.6 billion in fresh buying), a repeat bullish divergence pattern, and demand confirmation from the largest wallet cohorts. The previous rally lacked this trifecta—specifically, it was undermined by concurrent whale selling that created insufficient supply foundation.

For now, XRP carries a stronger technical and on-chain foundation than it did during the earlier bounce attempt. However, price action alone will render the final verdict. The $1.92 resistance level functions as the definitive dividing line—break it with conviction, and the reversal gains credibility; fail to clear it, and both the whale accumulation and RSI signal may prove inconsequential.