## Seasonal Wave in Financial Markets: Will Bitcoin Lead Cryptocurrencies in December?

Many indicators suggest that in September and October, when stock market panic reached its peak, investors were already preparing for what December might historically bring. The Christmas holiday period in financial markets is not just a tradition – it is a statistically proven phenomenon worth examining more closely.

### History shows: S&P 500 beats fears in the last weeks of the year

Since 1929, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a clear seasonal pattern. During the Santa Claus rally, prices increased in 79% of cases with an average return of +1.6%. Even if we narrow the analysis to the last seventy-five years, the last two weeks of December consistently rank among the strongest for the stock market.

What’s fascinating – in the last eight years, the S&P 500 has fallen in this time window only once. This convinces many professional traders that December in the stock markets is almost a guaranteed growth scenario.

### Cryptocurrencies follow the stock market, but with greater volatility

When stock market panic subsides and risk appetite returns, capital also flows into the digital asset market. However, it’s important to remember – crypto assets amplify these movements, meaning both greater opportunities and greater risks.

Recent days have brought a shift in sentiment. The fear index dropped from an extreme 11 points to 16, signaling that although panic is still present, it is beginning to weaken. This usually precedes multi-day or multi-week price rebounds.

### Current prices of major coins: signs of recovery are already visible

Data from January 12, 2026, show:

- **Bitcoin**: 91,58 thousand dollars (up 0.87% in 24 hours)
- **Ethereum**: 3.14 thousand dollars (up 1.41% in 24 hours)
- **XRP**: 2.06 dollars (down 1.76% in 24 hours)

Ethereum and Bitcoin are clearly gaining momentum, while XRP still faces resistance. However, even these small increases after the previous correction are the first signs of a possible breakthrough.

### Policy supports growth narrative: Trump’s statement on cryptocurrencies

Legal regulations could be transformative for the entire industry. Recent statements regarding potential government regulation of cryptocurrencies reduce regulatory uncertainty and open the door for greater institutional involvement.

Such political signals, combined with waning stock market panic, create favorable conditions for institutional capital.

### Liquidity cycle pattern: history repeats with altcoins

Observations from previous cycles show a recurring pattern:

1. Tightening monetary policy by the Fed
2. Testing supports and liquidating weak players
3. End of tightening (end of QT)
4. Return of liquidity
5. Altcoin explosion

In 2020, after the end of QT, many altcoins increased by over 1000%. The current situation is beginning to resemble that scenario – the Fed is gradually changing direction, altcoin market capitalization hovers around multi-year support levels, and the first wave of liquidations has already passed.

### Conclusions: waiting for trend confirmation

The history of financial markets suggests that the holiday rally is one of the more reliable seasonal patterns. When stock market panic diminishes, conditions are favorable for growth.

Currently, we are seeing a combination of: weakening fear sentiment, favorable political signals, return of liquidity, and initial technical signs of recovery. However, volatility will remain high – the final scenario will unfold in the coming trading weeks.