XRP fundamentals are on the rise, why is the price still waiting? Analysts look toward $3.

Entering 2026, XRP exhibits an interesting phenomenon: infrastructure is accelerating in development, but price movement remains relatively mild. After falling from the high of $3.65 in 2025 to the current $2.05, market sentiment has become more cautious. Several analysts predict that XRP may return to around $3 in 2026, offering approximately 40% upside from the current level. However, this target is not driven by a single event but rather by gradual improvements in the fundamentals.

Dislocation Between Fundamentals and Price

In mid-2025, the XRP Ledger officially launched the EVM sidechain, seen as an important step to promote ecosystem expansion. This sidechain allows developers to deploy smart contracts using mature development tools from the Ethereum ecosystem, theoretically lowering the entry barrier significantly. However, reality is more complex.

Ecosystem Progress Lag

As of early January, on-chain revenue from the EVM sidechain was very low, with total locked value (TVL) under $50,000, far from reaching scale. This reflects a common phenomenon: network functionality improvement does not equate to application explosion. Several mainstream public chains already support EVM compatibility, and XRP needs to attract developers and liquidity through differentiated applications, funding incentives, or institutional collaboration. Progress in these areas is more likely to unfold gradually.

Steady Advancement at the Enterprise Level

Ripple has been active in 2025. The company completed acquisitions of several financial and crypto infrastructure firms such as Hidden Road, aiming to enhance brokerage, custody, and payment capabilities. It also launched the Ripple USD stablecoin and actively promoted banking operations, including applying for a U.S. national bank charter and related custody accounts. These measures strengthen connections with traditional financial systems but also imply a relatively steady, rather than aggressive, pace of implementation.

Multi-Dimensional Bottom Signals

Although the fundamentals still need to gather momentum, market indicators show clear bottoming features.

Technical Bullish Signals

According to the latest data, XRP’s 26-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average, forming a short-term golden cross, indicating selling pressure is weakening and momentum may shift. Additionally, analysts note that XRP’s RSI has fallen below 25, entering oversold territory. Historical data shows that similar situations often precede significant rebounds; in 2023 and 2024, such conditions triggered substantial increases of 256% and 857%, respectively.

Capital Flow Signals

Spot XRP ETFs saw a net inflow of $38.1 million over the past week, with weekly trading volume reaching a record $219 million. Meanwhile, market data indicates retail investors have been buying the dip around $2, and whales have increased their holdings since mid-November. These signs suggest both institutional and retail investors are actively allocating to XRP.

Support Logic for the $3 Target

Analysts’ forecasts for $3 are mainly based on three factors: sustained institutional allocation, gradual ecosystem expansion, and deeper collaboration between Ripple and financial institutions. It’s important to note that this is not driven by sudden catalysts but by incremental improvements in fundamentals.

Caution on Limiting Factors

XRP’s current market cap exceeds $100 billion, ranking fifth, which means price elasticity is relatively limited. Historical experience shows that even as network functionality continues to improve, token prices may lag temporarily. Future movements will still depend on actual application growth, capital flows, and overall crypto market conditions.

Summary

XRP’s story is not a “black swan” surge but a “turtle” climb. Fundamentals do lag, and the TVL data of the EVM sidechain indicates the ecosystem is still in early stages. However, from technical signals like the golden cross, oversold RSI, and ongoing capital inflows, the market is preparing for fundamental improvements. The $3 target is not unreachable; the key will be whether the EVM sidechain can see application growth in 2026 and whether Ripple’s collaborations with financial institutions can materialize. For investors, the main consideration now is not “when will it reach $3,” but rather “whether the pace of fundamental improvement meets expectations.”