Will Bitcoin return to the $10,000 level? A Bloomberg analyst debunks the pessimistic market outlook

Cryptocurrency Market in Liquidity Crisis

Recent days have shown a noticeable impact of deflationary sentiment on risk assets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, published a report containing a forecast that is controversial not only among bulls: bitcoin has a chance to return to $10,000 by 2026, due to the market transitioning into a deflationary cycle after a historic period of inflation. This stance is particularly interesting because it does not treat bitcoin as an independent crypto asset, but as part of a broader system of “global risk assets — liquidity — return to the mean”.

Current bullish prices do not reflect this deeper structural analysis. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $91.55K with a 24-hour increase of +0.97%, while Ethereum ($3.14K, +1.45%), and Solana ($141.59, +3.98%) show mixed signals. BNB has fallen by 0.66%, XRP by 1.43%, and TRX by 0.34%. Consolidation in the range of 80–90 thousand dollars has already begun to exert pressure comparable to the end of January 2022.

McGlone’s Theory: Turning Point in the Macroeconomic Cycle

The key to understanding the pessimistic forecast is not just the crypto industry itself, but the interpretation of the shift from inflation to deflation. McGlone repeatedly emphasizes that global markets are approaching a pivotal moment: when inflation peaks, the logic of asset valuation shifts from “fighting inflation” to “dealing with deflation after inflation”.

The analyst points to three fundamental paths supporting his model:

First, the return to the mean after extremes. Bitcoin was one of the most extreme wealth accelerators in the era of loose monetary policy. When asset prices rise significantly faster than real economic growth over years, the return is usually not gentle. Both the 1929 crash and the 2000 tech bubble demonstrate that the scale of the final correction often exceeds pessimistic expectations.

Second, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio. At the end of 2022, it was around 10, in 2025 it reached over 30, but has already fallen by 40% to 21. If deflationary pressure persists, a return to the historical range is a realistic scenario.

Third, the problem of excess token supply. Although bitcoin has a fixed limit, the entire ecosystem — millions of projects competing for the same risk budget — is difficult to completely detach from the revaluation process in a deflationary cycle.

Divergent Assessments by Major Institutions

McGlone’s forecasts do not represent market consensus. Standard Chartered recently drastically lowered its medium- and long-term expectations: from $200,000 to about $100,000 in 2025, and from $300,000 to around $150,000 in 2026. Institutions assume that ETFs and corporate allocations no longer guarantee marginal demand at every price level.

Glassnode indicates that the current bitcoin consolidation has triggered pressure comparable to the end of January 2022, with unrealized losses approaching 10% of market capitalization. The current dynamics reflect “limited liquidity and sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks,” but have not yet reached the typical capitulation of a bear market.

10x Research presents a more direct conclusion: bitcoin has entered an early bear market phase, and on-chain indicators suggest that the downward cycle has not yet ended.

Macroeconomic Breakthrough — Week of Decisions

Uncertainty around bitcoin is no longer just a crypto market issue but is linked to the global macroeconomic cycle. The coming week will be a critical window: the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions, and the United States will release employment and inflation data.

The last Fed meeting (December 10) brought extraordinary signals: a 25 basis point rate cut, but also three dissenting votes, and Powell admitted that employment growth might have been overestimated. A series of macroeconomic data will shape expectations for 2026: whether the Fed will continue cuts or impose a longer pause.

Summary: Bullish Prices or Decline?

For risk assets, the answer to the Fed’s policy question may be more important than any single technical analysis of bitcoin indicators. McGlone himself admits to his mistakes — underestimating the times gold broke through $2000 or misjudging bond yields. However, such discrepancies confirm his main thesis: just before a turning point, the market is most susceptible to trend illusions. Bitcoin may remain in a consolidation zone, but structural macroeconomic conditions suggest that greater volatility and shifts are inevitable.