2026-01-12 08:25:25

According to the latest CTA fund holdings data, quantitative funds focused on medium- to long-term trend capturing still maintain a considerable long position in European and Japanese stocks. Currently, the stock markets in these two regions are repeatedly oscillating near historical highs, and this situation reduces the urgency for short-term liquidation.

Interestingly, market participants generally believe that a decline of at least 3.5% is needed to truly trigger the first batch of stop-loss signals. This number is crucial—it reflects the current market resilience and also indicates the confidence level of large funds in their holdings.

From a trend-following perspective, as long as this key support level is not broken, CTAs are unlikely to panic and exit their positions. However, this also means that once the decline reaches this critical point, a chain reaction may occur. For traders focusing on global stock market trends and arbitrage opportunities, this 3.5% figure is worth paying close attention to.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 42m ago

3.5% Is this threshold really so sacred? It feels like the market is self-hypnotizing. We said we wouldn't rush to sell, but isn't everyone going to panic sell together in the end? That's hilarious. European and Japanese stock markets are swinging at high levels, CTA traders are holding tight, and they're playing with fire. Are we really waiting for a 3.5% drop to trigger a chain reaction? I bet 5 bucks it won't drop that far before someone escapes first. Is the confidence of the big funds really that valuable? I want to see what happens when the critical point is truly reached.

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GweiObserver

· 4h ago

3.5%—I'll just take this number as a reference. Such stop-loss points are often paper tigers. By the time it really drops, the big funds will have already run, and it's not our turn anymore.

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memecoin_therapy

· 4h ago

3.5% sounds pretty mysterious, like everyone is betting on a psychological price point. When it drops to that level, will the big players just dump the market all at once? Are there still people willing to hold heavy positions in Europe and Japan now? I find it a bit unsettling. Once the chain reaction starts, retail investors have no chance; they've already been caught. So right now, it's just a game of testing each other at historical highs—who blinks first loses.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 4h ago

Is the number 3.5% really that sacred, or is it just self-hypnosis? Once the break occurs, will a chain reaction follow? Isn't that just gambling psychology? Could the European and Japanese stock markets be overvalued again in this wave? Do big funds really have that much confidence? Wait, why does this logic feel a bit like a contrarian indicator?

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DegenWhisperer

· 5h ago

3.5% this number feels a bit虚啊, it seems that CTA traders wouldn't really panic and wait until this point. Europe and Japan's ongoing bullish trend, is it really confidence or just no one willing to sell? The higher it goes, the more dangerous it feels. When the stop-loss signal is triggered, is it really a domino effect, or just another false alarm? In a market that repeatedly oscillates around historical highs, I really don't dare to hold a heavy position. This 3.5% looks quite precise, but could it just be a psychological expectation?

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MysteriousZhang

· 5h ago

3.5% this number feels like an invisible red line in the market. The major funds are just waiting now, anyway, there's no rush to run. Once this level is broken, we might just watch the show. In Europe and Japan, CTA traders are holding tightly. If this drop really happens, could the chain reaction exceed expectations?

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