Recent Federal Reserve expectations have attracted market attention. According to the latest data, the December employment report performed well, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.4%, easing concerns about a softening labor market. However, the Fed's overall assessment is that the tightening of the labor market will be very gradual, and a significant reduction in supply may not occur until the second quarter.

The key lies in the direction of inflation. The upcoming December CPI data is expected to trigger a series of increases in core CPI. The Federal Reserve forecasts a month-over-month growth rate of 0.4%, and the core CPI for the fiscal year ending in May could grow at a rate exceeding 3%. This rate of increase poses real pressure on the current expectations of rate cuts.

Against this macro backdrop, even if the new Fed chair leans toward a relatively moderate policy, it will be difficult to gain the upper hand in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions. The latest Fed expectations are: maintaining interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, with the next rate hike not expected until 2027—specifically in the third quarter, when a 25 basis point increase will push the policy rate ceiling up to 4%. For the crypto market, this means the tightening cycle may still be a little further away.