RSI indicator drops to a critical point: Bitcoin technical warning signals a potential shift to deep correction

According to CryptoQuant institutional research, Bitcoin’s current technical outlook shows warning signals. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently published an analysis indicating that the RSI indicator has fallen below its 12-month moving average for the first time, just 2 points away from the 4-year moving average. Historically, this technical feature often signals the beginning of a deeper market correction.

Technical Status and Key Data

Based on the latest data, Bitcoin’s current price is $91.47K, with relatively mild short-term volatility (weekly increase of 1.5%), but clear medium-term resistance. Over the past three months, it has declined by as much as 19.7%, with an annual decline of 10.5%, showing a clear downward trajectory.

The most noteworthy aspect is the performance of the RSI indicator. Currently at 56.5, this marks a critical turning point—it signifies the first time in over a year that the indicator has fallen below the 12-month moving average (67.3). More importantly, this value is only 2 points away from the 4-year moving average (58.7). If it continues to decline, it will reach a historically significant technical support level.

Market Implications of the RSI Indicator

According to CryptoQuant’s historical backtesting, when the RSI falls below the 4-year moving average, the market typically faces a critical crossroads. This not only indicates a slowdown in short-term momentum but also reflects a potential shift in investor sentiment from cautious observation to active caution.

Adler emphasizes that the next 1-2 months are crucial for determining the market direction. If the RSI can stabilize within the 55-58 range, Bitcoin may still bottom out and rebound; conversely, if the RSI continues to break below the 55 support level, the market could enter a deeper correction cycle.

Key Points Investors Should Monitor Closely

Market participants need to keep a close eye on the subsequent movements of the RSI indicator. The current position is neither entirely safe nor completely risky but a decisive moment. The RSI will serve as an important reference for judging whether Bitcoin is entering a short-term recovery phase or shifting toward a long-term downtrend. The trend of this indicator will directly influence subsequent market rhythm and investment decision-making.