2026: The Year When Utility Will Surpass Speculation in Major Economic Sectors

The new report from CoinShares, a leading European digital asset investment management firm with over $6 billion in assets under management, offers a comprehensive view of the future of crypto and blockchain within the context of the global macroeconomic landscape. The 77-page study titled “Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins” contains an in-depth analysis of how digital assets will become integral to various sectors of the economy, from financial services to real estate tokenization.

I. The Significant Shift: From Entrepreneurial Thinking to Practical Use

CoinShares’ main thesis is clear: 2025 has triggered a historic shift from speculation-driven value to utility-driven ecosystems. 2026 will not be a year of “losing old ideas,” but a year of strong integration.

Unlike previous years, digital assets are no longer striving to create a parallel financial world. Instead, their goal is to strengthen and modernize the existing traditional system. The convergence of public blockchain infrastructure, regulated market mechanisms, and real economic applications is progressing faster than many expected.

II. The Macroeconomic Environment Challenge and Sector Scenarios

The Balance on a Knife’s Edge: Soft Landing or Stagflation?

The US economic outlook is full of uncertainty. Projections suggest a possibility of avoiding recession, but growth will be weak and fragile. Inflation, although decreasing, remains high due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and protectionist tariff policies. Core inflation remains at its highest levels since the early 1990s.

The Federal Reserve is expected to be very slow in lowering interest rates, possibly only reaching mid-3% for an extended period. Their cautious approach is driven by traumatic memories of the 2022 inflation spike.

Three Scenarios for Bitcoin and the Entire Digital Asset Market:

Optimistic Case: If a soft landing with productivity surprises is achieved, Bitcoin could surpass $150,000, and institutional adoption could rapidly increase across all sectors of the economy.

Baseline Expectation: Slow and steady economic expansion will lead to Bitcoin trading in the $110,000-$140,000 range, with continued progressive institutional adoption.

Bearish Scenario: If recession or stagflation occurs, Bitcoin could fall to the $70,000-$100,000 range, allowing for market re-pricing.

The Fall of Dollar Dominance as a Structural Tailwind

The composition of global foreign exchange reserves is changing profoundly. The US dollar’s share has fallen from 70% in 2000 to mid-50% now. Central banks in emerging markets are actively diversifying, increasing holdings of RMB, gold, and alternative assets. This structural shift provides a long-term tailwind for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value independent of any sector of the economy or political entity.

III. The Breakthrough: Bitcoin Mainstream Adoption in the United States

2025 delivered a series of institutional milestones once thought impossible:

• Approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs
• Development of sophisticated ETF options markets
• Creation of retirement plan flexibility for Bitcoin exposure
• Implementation of fair value accounting guidelines for corporate holdings
• Recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset by the US government, with steps toward strategic reserve accumulation

Adoption Remains Slow Due to Institutional Inertia

Even after major barriers were administratively removed, practical adoption remains limited. Traditional wealth management channels, retirement plan providers, and corporate compliance teams still need several months to integrate Bitcoin into their operations and risk management protocols.

Expected in 2026: Incremental Progress in the Private Sector

CoinShares projects the following developments:

• At least four major brokerage firms will launch substantial Bitcoin ETF allocations
• At least one major 401(k) provider will offer Bitcoin allocation options
• At least two S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets
• At least two major custodian banks will begin offering direct custody services for institutional clients

IV. Corporate Bitcoin Hoarding: Opportunities and Risks

The Exponential Growth of Corporate Holdings

The landscape of corporate Bitcoin ownership has changed dramatically over the past year. From 266,000 BTC held by public companies in 2024, it has risen to 1,048,000 BTC, reflecting an increase from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion in value. The total is heavily concentrated, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) controlling 61% of holdings, and the top 10 companies holding 84% of the total.

The Lingering Refinance Risk

MicroStrategy faces two critical risks that could hinder continued accumulation:

The first is perpetual debt obligations, with annual cash flow requirements reaching nearly $680 million. The second is refinancing risk, as the nearest bond maturity is in September 2028.

If the mNAV approaches 1x or refinancing becomes impossible at zero interest rates, MSTR may be forced to sell large portions of its Bitcoin holdings, initiating a pernicious selling cycle.

The Maturation of the Options Market and Volatility Compression

The development of the IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust) options market has been a significant driver of volatility compression in Bitcoin. This phenomenon signals market maturation but has an counterintuitive consequence: lower volatility may reduce demand for convertible bonds and impact corporate purchasing power relying on Bitcoin collateral financing. The volatility decline inflection point occurred in spring 2025.

V. The Fragmented but Descending Regulatory Ecosystem

Europe: The MiCA Framework as a Global Gold Standard

The European Union has deployed the clearest legal framework worldwide, covering crypto asset issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoin regulation. However, in 2025, fault lines appeared in regulatory coordination, and some national regulators are expected to challenge cross-border passporting provisions.

United States: Innovation with Regulatory Fragmentation

The US remains a dominant force in innovation due to its deep capital markets and mature venture ecosystem. However, regulatory authority remains balanced among the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve, and other agencies. The GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation has been resolved, but implementation is ongoing, with many operational details still needing clarification.

Asia: Converging Prudential Standards

Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and other regional jurisdictions follow Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements. Singapore remains flexible with a risk-based licensing approach, while others are more structured. Asia is forming a regulatory bloc that is more interconnected and bank-aligned.

VI. The Integration of Hybrid Finance: How On-Chain and Off-Chain Are Merging

The Infrastructure Layer: Stablecoins as Backbone

The stablecoin ecosystem has reached a market cap of over $300 billion. Ethereum remains the largest platform, but Solana is the fastest-growing. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to maintain US Treasury reserves, creating significant new demand for short-term Treasury instruments.

The decentralized exchange ecosystem processes over $600 billion in monthly trading volume, and Solana demonstrates the capacity to handle $40 billion daily trading volume without significant network congestion.

The Tokenized Real-World Assets: From Pure Projection to Billions Deployed

The market value of tokenized real-world assets increased from $15 billion at the start of 2025 to $35 billion now. Private credit tokenization and US Treasury tokenization are the fastest-growing segments. Tokenized gold has reached $1.3 billion. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund has expanded exponentially, while JPMorgan has launched JPMD tokenized deposits on the Base network.

The On-Chain Protocols Generate Real Cash Flows

A transformative trend is the emergence of protocols generating hundreds of millions of dollars in annual net revenue and distributing it directly to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of revenue for daily token buybacks. Uniswap and Lido have implemented similar mechanisms. This is a fundamental shift: tokens are becoming less speculative instruments and more equity-like assets with underlying cash flow claims.

VII. The Stablecoin Duopoly and the Beginning of Corporate Payment Transformation

The Concentration and Barriers to Entry

Tether (USDT) commands 60% of the stablecoin market, while Circle (USDC) holds 25%. Entry barriers are high due to strong network effects, and even new entrants like PayPal’s PYUSD struggle to gain significant traction. The duopoly is unlikely to change in the near term.

The 2026 Corporate Adoption Thesis

Payment processors like Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe have a structural advantage that could shift settlement to stablecoins without changing customer experience. JPMorgan pioneered JPM Coin, and Siemens reports a 50% reduction in foreign exchange costs, with settlement times shortened from days to seconds using blockchain-based payments.

Shopify now accepts USDC for checkout. Asia and Latin America are experimenting with stablecoin-based supplier payments, providing efficiency gains for companies operating across multiple currencies.

The Interest Rate Sensitivity and Refinance Math

Stablecoin issuers rely on interest income generated by backing reserves. If the Federal Reserve rate drops to 3%, issuers would need to issue an additional $88.7 billion in stablecoins just to maintain current interest income levels. This is a significant constraint on future growth.

VIII. The Competitive Dynamics of Exchanges: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis

Intense Competition with Razor-Thin Margins

Competition in the exchange sector is fierce and growing, leading to fee compression in the low single-digit basis points. Profitability erodes, and consolidation has become inevitable.

The Threat of Entry from Traditional Finance Giants

Firms like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and Charles Schwab are preparing to enter but still rely on partnerships in the immediate term due to regulatory complexity.

The Rising Power of Stablecoin Infrastructure Providers

Circle and other stablecoin issuers have increased bargaining power, especially through innovations like the Arc mainnet. Revenue-sharing agreements are critical—the Coinbase-Circle USDC arrangement is particularly high-value.

The Institutional Buyers as a Driving Force

Over 80% of Coinbase trading volume comes from institutional clients with strong bargaining power. Retail users are price-sensitive but contribute marginally to profitability.

The Threat of Substitution from Decentralized Alternatives

Decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid, prediction markets like Polymarket, and CME crypto derivatives cannibalize trading volume. Expect 2026 to see aggressive M&A activity, with major exchanges and banks acquiring customers, licenses, and infrastructure.

IX. The Smart Contract Platform Wars: Ethereum vs. Solana vs. the Thousand Others

Ethereum: Institutional-Grade Infrastructure Scaling

Ethereum is executing a Rollup-centric roadmap increasing Layer-2 throughput from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS today. Base layer validators push for higher Gas limits. The US spot Ethereum ETF has attracted nearly $13 billion in inflows. In institutional tokenization, BUIDL and JPMD validate Ethereum as an institutional-grade settlement layer.

Solana: Monolithic Performance Leadership

Solana leads due to its simplified architecture and extreme optimization. DeFi TVL is 7% of total, but the ecosystem is growing. Stablecoin supply reached $12 billion from $1.8 billion in January 2024. Tokenized real-world assets are developing, and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund grew from $25 million to $250 million in just a few months. Technical upgrades—Firedancer client, DoubleZero validator communication—improve throughput. The spot ETF launched on October 28 generated $382 million in net inflows in the first week.

Emerging High-Performance Contenders

Layer-1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid differentiate through architectural innovations. Hyperliquid specializes in derivatives trading and captures one-third of total blockchain revenue. However, market fragmentation is severe, and EVM compatibility has become a key competitive advantage for survivors.

X. The Transformation of Mining: From Energy-Intensive Hobby to HPC Industrial Complex

The Hash Rate Explosion in 2025

Aggregate hash rate of public mining companies increased by 110 EH/s, mainly from expansions by Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, and Iris Energy.

The Seismic Shift: Mining as Crypto + HPC Dual Revenue

Miners announced $65 billion in HPC contracts. By the end of 2026, Bitcoin mining revenue is expected to decrease from 85% of operational revenue to below 20%, as HPC services become the dominant revenue stream. Operating margins for HPC are 80-90%, compared to single digits for pure Bitcoin mining.

The Long-Term Model: Fragmentation Likely

The future mining landscape will be multifaceted: ASIC manufacturers mining directly, modular mining service providers, intermittent mining coexisting with HPC, and sovereign mining by nations. In the very long term, mining may re-decentralize into smaller, distributed operations, reversing the consolidation trend.

XI. The Venture Capital Boom: Where the Money Is Going

The 2025 Funding Explosion

Crypto venture capital funding reached $18.8 billion for the year, surpassing the total of 2024 ($16.5 billion). Mega-deals dominated: $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket, $500 million Series funding for Stripe’s Tempo, $300 million Series funding for Kalshi.

The Four Hottest Trends for 2026

Real-World Asset Tokenization: Securitize SPAC and $50 million Series A of Agora signal palpable institutional interest in tokenization infrastructure.

AI x Crypto Convergence: Natural language trading interfaces, autonomous AI agents, and similar applications are rapidly advancing, attracting both crypto-native and AI-native capital.

Decentralized Retail Investment Platforms: Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), Legion, and similar platforms unlock retail angel investing, disintermediating traditional VC structures.

Bitcoin Infrastructure: Layer-2 solutions, Lightning Network implementations, and similar Bitcoin-native infrastructure are receiving renewed attention.

XII. The Resurgence of Prediction Markets: From Niche to Mainstream

During the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket achieved weekly trading volumes exceeding $800 million. Momentum persisted post-election, and predictive accuracy became undeniable: 60% probability events occurred with 60% actual frequency, and 80% probability events materialized with 77-82% frequency.

ICE’s (Intercontinental Exchange) investment of $2 billion in Polymarket in October 2025 marked a watershed moment, signaling recognition by mainstream financial institutions. 2026 may see weekly volumes surpassing $2 billion, establishing prediction markets as core financial infrastructure.

XIII. Deeper Implications: How Digital Assets Will Reshape Economic Sectors

The Rapid Maturation Cycle

The digital asset ecosystem has moved from speculation-driven dynamics to utility and cash flow fundamentals. Tokens are converging toward equity-like instruments with underlying economic claims.

The Hybrid Finance as Default Model

The integration of public blockchain infrastructure and traditional financial systems is no longer just theoretical. Growth in stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications provides concrete evidence of convergence, affecting all major sectors of the economy.

The Regulatory Clarity as Catalyst

The GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, and Asia’s prudential frameworks provide long-overdue legal certainty. Clarity will accelerate institutional adoption cycles.

The Progressive but Deliberate Private Sector Adoption

Even with administrative barriers removed, actual corporate adoption will be a multi-year process. 2026 will be a decisive year for incremental progress, with visible expansion in retail banking, corporate treasuries, and payment processing.

The Competitive and Market Concentration

Ethereum will remain dominant but face serious challenges from Solana and other high-performance chains. EVM compatibility has become an essential feature for survival. The wave of consolidation has already begun and will accelerate in 2026.

The Paired Risks and Opportunities

Concentrated corporate Bitcoin holdings pose systemic selling risks, but institutional tokenization opportunities, stablecoin adoption potential, and prediction market growth offer significant upside for ecosystem participants.

Bottom Line: 2026 will be a pivotal year where digital assets truly transition from niche speculation vehicles to core infrastructure woven through traditional financial systems, corporate operations, and major economic sectors.