The weekly Dogecoin chart slides into critical Fibonacci levels as on-chain signals deteriorate

The price of Dogecoin continues to slide on the weekly timeframe chart, approaching Fibonacci retracement levels that coincide with the historical bases of its most significant bullish movements. With DOGE trading around $0.14, selling pressure remains firm and momentum indicators reveal a gradual weakening.

Technical Analysis: Persistent Bearish Pressure and Break of Key Supports

The Fibonacci retracement calculated from the 2023-2025 bullish cycle identifies a critical zone between levels 0.618 and 0.5, corresponding to the range of $0.235 to $0.282. During the first quarter of this year, Dogecoin failed to consolidate above this resistance band, resulting in a bearish breakdown that transformed the chart structure.

Since then, weekly candles have formed a consistent sequence of descending highs and lows, outlining a clearly defined downtrend channel. This structural change marks the point at which buyers lost their temporary dominance.

The 50-week exponential moving average, located approximately at $0.20, has acted as a dynamic resistance over the past months. Each attempt to recover toward this line has been rejected by sellers before a decisive weekly close above it. This pattern repeatedly confirmed that selling pressure remains in control.

The Relative Strength Index on the weekly scale hovers around the high 30s, an area indicating weakened momentum but not yet reaching oversold conditions. This positioning suggests potential for further technical deterioration unless Dogecoin stabilizes near demand zones.

On-chain Data Reveal Pronounced Weakness and Next Strategic Support

Analysis conducted with Glassnode data exposes a discouraging outlook for Dogecoin. The Realized Price Distribution chart of UTXOs shows limited transaction volume within the current price range, indicating very weak realized support just below current market values.

However, the distribution thickens significantly around $0.081, where substantial accumulation of supply made its last transactions on the blockchain. This level represents the next major on-chain support zone where a considerable number of holders could be prepared to defend their positions.

If Dogecoin continues its slide and falls below its current levels, on-chain data suggest the asset could naturally gravitate toward the $0.081 region, where a more solid base of historical accumulation exists.

No Clear Reversal in Sight on the Technical Front

The next area of technical importance lies between $0.153 and $0.158, a zone that served as resistance in late 2023 and early 2024 and currently acts as a potential support. A weekly close below this level would more strongly confirm the active downtrend channel and could extend the move toward the lower boundary of the pattern.

For the weekly chart to show a significant structural change, Dogecoin would need to recover both the upper trendline of the downtrend channel and the 50-week moving average. Only this scenario would provide the initial confirmations of a reversal that could allow recovery of the Fibonacci zone lost in earlier phases of the cycle.

Currently, the weekly outlook illustrates a clear bearish trend with Dogecoin constantly sliding from its previous supports in the golden Fibonacci zone, without showing confirmation of a broader shift in the overall momentum direction.