Bitcoin in search of its trajectory: when will the market's "honey rate period" arrive?

Price Forecasts for the Next Two Years

According to industry experts’ analyses, Bitcoin may be in a crucial transition phase. In the short term, specifically over the next 3-6 months, it is estimated that the price could fluctuate within a range of $87,000 to $95,000. These levels would represent a consolidation phase before more significant movements.

Looking at the medium term, the first half of 2026 could prove to be particularly interesting, with forecasts placing Bitcoin in the $120,000-$150,000 range. This would represent a substantial extension from the current levels of $91.82K, reflecting expectations of significant growth driven by market dynamics still in evolution.

The Radical Shift in Market Structure: From Speculators to Major Investors

What is happening is not merely a price fluctuation but a real reconfiguration of the investor landscape. Current data show a notable shift in market composition: the market share held by large institutional investors has reached 24%, while private investors have simultaneously reduced their exposure to 66%.

This transfer of power almost represents a complete handover in the cryptocurrency sector. While individual operators continue to reduce their positions, institutions are accumulating assets at high price levels, operating according to a cyclical vision rather than relying on single quotation levels.

Why 2025 is Not a “Dark Year” but a Transition Point

Although Bitcoin recorded a negative annual change of -2.94% in 2025, reaching the all-time high of $126.08K signals an important sign of the ongoing structural reconfiguration. The market is not experiencing a negative trend reversal but rather the beginning of the institutionalization era of cryptocurrencies.

The inflow of approximately $25 milliards through structured investment instruments highlights strong and sustained expectations, particularly for the first half of 2026. This capital movement, even amid slowing prices, signals deep confidence among sophisticated operators in the long-term potential of the sector.

The “Honey Rate” Political Window: Opportunities in the First Half of 2026

A key element in the outlook for the coming year concerns the U.S. electoral cycle. The first half of 2026 could be configured as a “period of honey rates” relatively calm from a political standpoint, where institutional allocations might enjoy a favorable environment. Historically, in pre-election years, political considerations often steer investment decisions toward greater caution in the following months.

Consequently, the January-June 2026 window could represent an opportunity for long-term positioning before the increase in political uncertainty that typically characterizes the second half of election years. From July 2026 onward, escalating uncertainty could generate increasing volatility related to election results and the continuity of supportive policies for the sector.

Remaining Risk Factors: Caution Remains Necessary

Despite optimism, analysts highlight several elements of uncertainty that could impact the market’s trajectory. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the possibility of a sustained appreciation of the dollar, potential slowdowns in regulatory changes, sales of long-term bonds, and uncertainties related to election outcomes remain among the main risk factors.

However, many industry observers recognize that cycles of widespread pessimism have historically preceded the best accumulation opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon.

What the Current Cycle Really Represents: End or New Beginning?

The prevailing theory among analysts is that the current cycle does not represent a conclusion but rather a new beginning. The structure of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a fundamental transformation, with investment infrastructure consolidating, regulatory clarity increasing, and institutional allocation intentions becoming more explicit.

When a market structure changes so radically, the old valuation logic becomes obsolete, and the new price-determination mechanism is built on entirely different foundations. Bitcoin in 2025 precisely represents this transition point: a phase where experienced operators accumulate positions for the upcoming cycle, while many market participants still do not fully grasp the implications of this structural change.