Beyond expectations: navigating the gap between actual adoption and the reality of the crypto market

The Inevitable Paradox of the Maturation Cycle

There is a fundamental disconnect that defines the current moment in the crypto market: while blockchain technology adoption continues to accelerate tangibly, asset prices remain stagnant or retreat. This is not an anomaly but the natural pattern of any technological revolution in its consolidation phase.

Maintaining a ten-year perspective on crypto is the most challenging psychological hurdle market participants face today. Reality requires you to accept seeing the adoption rate grow steadily while prices lag; you must also be prepared to witness massive capital flow into other sectors (artificial intelligence, traditional stocks, new speculative fads), leaving crypto in relative neglect.

The process will be painful. But this lag is mathematically inevitable: many crypto assets should never have reached the astronomical valuations of the past. The market does not recognize real adoption until prices collapse completely and stops caring.

Infrastructure vs. speculation: the cleansing process

The initial popularization of crypto applications typically generates bubbles because it tests business models, not validates fundamental value. When actual demand for usage cannot sustain inflated valuations, market readjustment is not only inevitable but necessary for healthy long-term development.

We clearly observe how invested capital from outside far exceeds actual utilization demand. Some projects will disappear quietly; others will survive but with valuations dramatically lower than their original peak visions.

Cryptocurrencies transition from spotlight protagonists to anonymous participants, transforming from exciting to ordinary. This is the inevitable path toward post-bubble maturity, and it is enormously positive.

History offers clear precedents: during the internet bubble collapse, the Nasdaq fell approximately 78%, while simultaneously internet users tripled and broadband infrastructure was deployed globally. The market took years to recover, but the technology had already revolutionized the world silently. Infrastructure does not reward impatient investors.

Relative value capture: who truly benefits

The market phase shift confuses many participants. Builders who spent years maintaining open-source repositories will see others replicate their achievements and capture most of the economic benefits. Native crypto venture capital funds that invested early in infrastructure will witness traditional funds capturing greater absolute value.

The fundamental question about relative value inevitably arises: Who truly captures the residual value created by blockchain?

• Visa or crypto settlement companies?
• Stripe or Layer 1 networks?
• Traditional investment platforms or native crypto exchanges?
• Layer 1 protocols aggregated or user aggregators?
• DeFi or traditional finance?
• DePIN or infrastructure stocks?

Analysis suggests that traditional and hybrid companies accessing open settlement channels to reduce costs typically capture more relative value than pure infrastructure. However, each theoretical framework has notable exceptions.

Price cycles vs. application cycles: structural desynchronization

The price cycle is driven by market psychology and liquidity. The application cycle is driven by practical utility and infrastructure. They are correlated but not synchronized. Historically, prices led applications during early technological revolutions. Today, applications are beginning to dominate while prices show significant lag.

Current marginal buyers of crypto assets seek opportunities elsewhere, particularly chasing the wave of artificial intelligence. This phenomenon may extend or reverse, beyond our control. What we observe clearly is that a world without stablecoins, transparent capital channels, and 24/7 global settlement is becoming increasingly hard to conceptualize.

The deep lesson of cycles is straightforward: we must accept that the disconnect between applications and prices can extend significantly longer than expected. If you seek sustained compound returns, rationality under psychological pressure becomes your true competitive advantage.

Healthy revaluations in a new regulatory environment

We enter a transformed regulatory and economic context. This creates opportunities to solve long-standing structural problems: weak product revenues, insufficient asset disclosures, misalignments between equity and token structures, opaque team incentives.

If the crypto industry genuinely aspires to its maximum potential, it must first demonstrate the right image. My strongest conviction is that over the next 15 years, most global companies will adopt crypto technology to stay competitive. The total crypto market capitalization will surpass $10 trillion. Stablecoins, tokenization, user scale, and on-chain activity will grow exponentially.

Simultaneously, valuation standards will be redefined, current giants may decline, irrational business models will be eliminated. This is healthy and necessary.

Cryptocurrencies will eventually become invisible. True lasting winners will deeply integrate them into business processes, payment systems, and balance sheets. Users should not notice the presence of crypto technology but should directly feel accelerated settlements, reduced costs, and minimized intermediaries. Cryptocurrencies must be pure and ordinary.

Strategic positioning amid uncertainty

I am not particularly optimistic about price evolution in the coming years. Adoption rates will continue to rise, but prices may keep falling, potentially worsened by mean reversion in stocks and cooling of the AI speculative cycle.

My selective assessment is clear:

• Optimistic about crypto as a service
• Optimistic about crypto-powered companies
• Pessimistic about excessive financialization
• Pessimistic about a failed unit economy
• Pessimistic about overbuilding infrastructure

Capital protection becomes crucial. The value of cash is underestimated not for yields but for the psychological immunity it provides—allowing decisive action when others remain immobile. Having a longer time horizon than most is itself a real advantage.

Expectation and patience: the true compass

The market has entered an era of rapid pace and decreasing patience. Expect genuine pain. Expect sellers to give up, expect faith to collapse. But we have not yet reached that critical point.

There is no urgency. The market will continue to fluctuate, life goes on, spend time on what truly matters. Do not let your investment portfolio consume your entire world.

The crypto world will operate silently, regardless of whether the market is in the shadows or under the spotlight. One day, when we look back at this period, everything will seem obviously clear. The signals are everywhere.