Solana rebounds cautiously: multi-timeframe technical analysis between hope and critical resistances

The latest movements of Solana (SOL) show mixed signals. With SOL at $141.88 (+4.29% in 24 hours), the market is testing a significant rebound, but questions remain: how sustainable is this move? And what levels will technically define the next chapter?

What the charts tell us: macro perspective

The overall picture remains complicated

On a daily basis, Solana maintains a weakened technical structure. The price, while advancing toward $141, continues to be initially below the EMA 20 D1 (around $132.75), indicating a phase where buyers are gaining ground but have not yet regained full control.

The three key indicators tell a story of transition:

• Daily RSI: reads 36.67, still far from overbought but showing signs of moderation in selling momentum
• MACD: line at -5.04 below the signal, negative histogram reduced to -0.20 – the downward engine is running out of steam
• Bollinger Bands: the close is just above the lower band, a classic zone where technical rebounds find support

This picture suggests that sellers are still in control on the D1 level, but with decreasing pressure.

Volatility and crucial supports

The daily ATR of $7.77 signals moderate oscillations – enough to penalize negligent risk management but not yet in capitulation territory. Pivot levels are: daily support S1 at $122.62, pivot at $123.57, resistance R1 at $124.93.

With SOL now at $141.88, the market has already surpassed these initial levels, suggesting a phase of searching for new equilibria.

Can the intraday rebound gain momentum?

Timeframe hourly (H1): the buyers’ turn

On the hourly basis, the scenario becomes more encouraging. EMA 20 H1 at $124.02 has been practically touched by the price, while EMA 50 (at $125.50) represents the first real test. With SOL now trading at $141.88, it’s clear that the rebound has surpassed these levels.

• Hourly RSI: 47.81 indicates balance, not sharp downward pressure
• MACD: positive histogram (+0.27) confirming the ongoing bullish attempt
• Hourly Bollinger Bands: the price has progressively moved toward the upper band, reflecting controlled but persistent demand

This timeframe shows a shift from “superficial technical rebound” to “movement with potential for continuation.”

Micro-timeframe (M15): who is in control right now

On 15 minutes, the EMA structure reveals price above both EMA 20 and EMA 50 (at $123.68 and $123.60 respectively), but still below EMA 200 ($125.54 on M15, although the overall context has changed).

• RSI M15: 57.09 shows light demand without signs of imminent explosion
• MACD M15: positive with histogram +0.05, supporting the idea of a controlled intraday rise
• ATR M15: low at $0.41, indicating a calm order book where small orders can influence the price

This reflects active short-term buyers, but not in “aggressive squeeze” mode.

The macro context complicates the picture

The overall crypto environment remains cautious. With Bitcoin dominance above 57%, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still at Extreme Fear (17), and SOL within a DeFi ecosystem with mixed activity, capital still prefers “safe” assets.

The main Solana DEXs (Raydium, Orca, Meteora, SolFi) show double-digit fee declines over 7-30 days, highlighting a trading volume that is underwhelming. HumidiFi is an exception with significant growth, but an isolated protocol does not change the ecosystem dynamics.

In other words: the technical rebound faces fundamentals still cautious for the asset.

Two plausible scenarios

Bullish scenario: “the rebound becomes a trend”

For this move to be credible, bulls must demonstrate that the rebound is more than just a bounce. What they need to do:

1. Consolidate above $135-140: keeping SOL in this zone would show that lower supports have held and that there is a structural buyer
2. Push through EMA 20 D1 ($132-133): a convincing daily close above this level would indicate sellers have lost leverage
3. Reclaim the zone $145-150 (EMA 50 D1): this would represent the first real structural change, turning the trend from bearish to neutral

Scenario invalidation: a decisive fall below $122 with RSI sliding toward 30 and price retracing the lower Bollinger Band on D1 would confirm that the current strength was just noise before another decline.

Bearish scenario: “the rebound cannot hold”

Bears are already favored by the D1 structure, so they just need to “let gravity do its thing.” What they will look for:

1. Rejection around $145-150: if the rebound stalls near the EMA 50 daily with RSI reversal on H1 and MACD crossing downward, it’s a classic lower high
2. Definitive break below $122.60: opens the way to new psychological lower tests (zone $110), especially if BTC remains under pressure
3. Persistent daily closes below EMA 20: as long as SOL closes below $133 for consecutive days, the default hypothesis remains a bearish continuation with rebounds as liquidity opportunities for sellers

Scenario invalidation: if SOL manages to close more days above $133, then surpasses the $145-150 zone with daily RSI stably above 50-55, the bearish trend would lose validity and the scenario would become balanced.

Practical positioning

Currently, the technical message is:

On the D1 level: still in downtrend, but with weakening strength. All EMAs remain above the price (except today’s relation), RSI at 36.67 shows exhaustion but not capitulation. The downward move is “controlled,” not “free-fall.”

On H1 and M15: tactical rebound underway with indicators supporting intraday continuation (Positive MACD, RSI toward the upper median). This is the arena where scalpers and intraday traders find opportunities.

Critical risk management: with Extreme Fear at 17% and lower liquidity (DeFi fee declines), the market can turn quickly. Stop-losses placed below psychological support (zone $135-140) and trailing stops to protect gains on the downside remain essential.

Most probable direction so far: sustained rebound up to $145-150 as the first target if the hourly structure remains positive, but with a definitive test of EMA 20 D1 ($132-133) determining whether this is the start of a trend or just a tactical correction. Confirmation will come from daily candles: above $133 = a positive signal; below $133 = return to higher timeframe bearish constraints.