## ADA Falling Behind, Top Ten Ranking in Jeopardy

The election cycle a year ago boosted the crypto market, and most altcoins retained gains from that rally despite macro uncertainties and consecutive declines. But Cardano (ADA) performed very differently—it has completely erased all gains from the cycle and returned to a key technical level near $0.39. Worse still, ADA is rapidly losing ground in market cap rankings.

According to the latest data, ADA has fallen 60.40% over the past year, with its market cap shrinking to $14.46B. In comparison, even Dogecoin (DOGE) has only declined by 59.15%, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has approached a market cap of $12.58B—meaning the gap between ADA and BCH in rankings is narrowing at a daily noticeable rate. In other words, ADA's time maintaining a top ten position may be much shorter than expected.

## Fundamentals Collapsing, Far Behind Sui

Technical weakness has begun to erode ADA's fundamentals. Although the network has recently undergone several upgrades, user engagement remains stagnant. According to on-chain data from DeFiLlama, Cardano's active addresses have dropped from 93k during the election period to below 25k, indicating a clear decline in market enthusiasm.

Ironically, Sui (SUI), with a market cap of only $6.88B—less than half of ADA—has a TVL 4.5 times that of Cardano. This huge disparity suggests that ADA may be seriously overvalued—user activity and ecosystem locked value are not matching the current market pricing.

## "Smart Money" Is Leaving

On-chain data provides the clearest signal: whale addresses have sold 120 million ADA in the past two months, perfectly aligning with ADA's 50% decline from the $0.80 high. This not only reflects large investors' concerns about ADA's prospects but also reveals Cardano's struggle to sustain price support.

Considering the sluggish market enthusiasm, stagnant TVL, ongoing technical weakness, and bleeding fundamentals, ADA is showing clear signs of overvaluation. In this context, maintaining its top ten ranking is more a matter of "time" than "ability."