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From a technical perspective, the current price trend of BTC reflects several characteristics of the historical cycle top. If this judgment is correct, a new all-time high is expected in the first half of 2026 (Q1 to Q2). Conversely, it indicates that we are still in the consolidation phase at the cycle top.
This cyclical repetition is not the first time in Bitcoin's history. From the perspective of the 4-year halving cycle, each bull-bear transition is accompanied by distinct morphological features. Whether the current BTC performance will break past patterns or continue the cyclical upward trend, market participants need to closely monitor subsequent volume and price movements as well as macroeconomic changes.