JPMorgan recently adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve policy, reflecting the latest employment data trends that are reshaping market perceptions of interest rates.

The bank's previous forecast was that the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates in January 2026, with a single 25 basis point cut. But now their stance has changed—they believe the Fed will keep rates stable throughout 2026 with no moves. More notably, JPMorgan now expects the Fed to raise rates once in the third quarter of 2027, also by 25 basis points.

This shift from expectations of rate cuts to holding steady and then to rate hikes is bound to impact the crypto market. Interest rate policies directly influence capital flows and investor risk appetite, and such policy signals often lead to volatility in major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. As employment data is an important reference for Fed decisions, every change in it warrants close attention from market participants.