Morning Comment | Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio drops below 0, tech giants pour capital into AI chips, Paxos acquires cryptocurrency wallet startup

Editor: ChainCatcher

Notable Market Developments

Bitcoin: Sharpe Ratio Hits Bottom, Basic Reversal Signal?

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen below 0, the lowest since the FTX collapse. This index measures the relationship between returns and risk — when it approaches or drops below 0, it often signals strong price volatility but insufficient profits to compensate for risk, a situation commonly seen at market bottoms or during panic sell-offs.

Historical records show that each time the Sharpe ratio approaches or hits 0, the Bitcoin market typically experiences a significant reversal or hits a price bottom. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $91.77K with a 24-hour volatility of +1.26%, indicating signs of recovery from selling pressure.

Weekly Bitcoin Price Outlook

James Wynn, a well-known analyst with a track record of accurate predictions, has just stated that Bitcoin could continue to decline to around $67,000 this week. Previously, on November 10, when Bitcoin was at $105,600, he warned of a drop to approximately $67,000–$92,000, and that forecast has materialized.

Major News

AI Chip Race: Tech Giants Ready to Challenge

Alphabet (Google’s parent) is negotiating with tech giants like Meta to expand access to its self-developed AI chip Tensor, aiming to compete directly with Nvidia in the AI chip sector. According to The Information, Google now plans to sell TPU chips directly to data center clients, rather than just offering cloud compute services as before.

This potential deal would allow Meta to purchase TPU chips worth billions of dollars starting in 2027, and lease TPU computing capacity from Google Cloud as early as 2026. Currently, Meta’s AI operations mainly rely on Nvidia GPUs.

Market reaction is clear: Google and Broadcom stocks rose after trading hours, while Nvidia and AMD faced downward pressure. This indicates that competition in the AI chip industry is heating up, with tech companies determined to reduce dependence on independent suppliers.

Fake News: DOGE Not Being Dissolved

Government Efficiency Office (DOGE) officially denies Reuters’ false report about DOGE being dissolved. According to DOGE, the organization will continue to provide periodic updates the following days. Last week, DOGE announced it had terminated 78 wasteful contracts, saving taxpayers $335 million.

Vitalik Buterin: Privacy Is Not a Feature, But “Basic Hygiene”

Following a cyberattack at SitusAMC technology provider, customer data from major US banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley may be exposed. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented: “Privacy is not a feature but a hygiene habit.” This emphasizes that protecting personal data should be considered a fundamental requirement of digital systems, not an optional feature.

Paxos Completes Cryptocurrency Wallet App Acquisition

Paxos, a crypto payment infrastructure company, announced the acquisition of New York-based crypto wallet startup Fordefi, with a transaction value exceeding $100 million. Fordefi specializes in providing wallet solutions for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, currently with about 40 employees and serving around 300 clients.

Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla said this deal aims to meet the increasing demand from customers for DeFi applications. Fordefi will initially operate independently, but Paxos plans to integrate Fordefi’s technology into its infrastructure in the future. This is Paxos’ second acquisition this year, after previously acquiring stablecoin issuer Membrane Finance to serve the EU market.

Michael Saylor: “Harming” 17,000 BTC

Michael Saylor announced he will destroy the private keys of over 17,000 Bitcoin worth approximately $1.5 billion that he holds, calling this act “my legacy.” This decision reflects Saylor’s long-term view of Bitcoin’s value within the future monetary system.

“The Big Short” Michael Burry Returns, Warns of AI Bubble

Michael Burry, the figure behind the movie “The Big Short,” officially returns on November 24 after a period of silence. He published his first opinion piece titled “Key Sign of a Bubble: Overproduction on the Supply Side” to express his short (bet) against the current wave of AI.

Burry compares Nvidia’s current situation to Cisco during the dot-com bubble. He refutes the argument that “big tech companies are highly profitable so there’s no bubble,” by citing data from 1999 when the dot-com bubble peaked — a period also driven by highly profitable companies, not just small websites.

The key issue Burry highlights is: “Excess supply disaster and too low demand” in the AI sector. He believes history is repeating itself from 1999.

Economic Indicators

US core producer price index (PPI core) for September rose by 0.1%, below the forecast of 0.2%, indicating continued easing of inflationary pressures.

Elon Musk: Grok 5 Will “Challenge” Top Esports Teams

Elon Musk proposes using Grok 5 to challenge League of Legends (complex strategy game) teams in 2026. Musk emphasizes that Grok 5 is designed so that just reading instructions and testing can enable it to play any game.

Grok 5 from xAI is expected to launch early 2026, with up to 6 trillion parameters, supporting multi-model capabilities, and a 10% chance of achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), surpassing previous models.

Zhao Changpeng Denies Netflix Rumor

Zhao Changpeng officially denies the rumor that “Jackie Chan will play Zhao Changpeng in a Netflix documentary.” He states: “That’s fake news. I like Jackie Chan, but he’s already 71. Let him be! I’m still trying to finish this book. The last 5% of edits always take 95% of the time.”

Notable Meme Coin Rankings

According to GMGN data, as of November 26 (UTC+8):

Top 5 hot tokens on Ethereum (ETH):

• SHIB, LINK ($13.37), PEPE ($0.00), UNI ($5.49), ONDO ($0.40)

Top 5 hot tokens on Solana:

• TRUMP ($5.45), Fartcoin, ME, DOOD, CHILLGUY

Top 5 hot tokens on Base:

• SKYA, BRIAN, B3, SLAP, TOSHI

Market Outlook

The cryptocurrency market is in a significant “rule-changing” transition phase. The previous excitement has cooled, but the real challenges are just beginning. Current signs indicate Bitcoin is in “safe haven” mode, while capital is gradually shifting toward more effective avenues such as stablecoins and real asset tokenization.

If the first decade of Bitcoin addressed the “right to exist,” the next decade will focus on the “right to own value.” The crypto world, once a rebellion against rigid financial systems, has now seen the rebels win. A new era is beginning: management is starting to accept innovation, capital flows are moving to more efficient paths, stablecoins and tokenization are rapidly developing, and the legendary aura of Bitcoin is gradually fading.