From the peak to the depths: Bitcoin and the story of October 2025

As we enter Q4 2025, the crypto market is facing a harsh reality: what was predicted to be “Uptober”—the historically favorable month for Bitcoin—has turned into one of the worst weeks in over a decade.

From October 5-7, Bitcoin hit a record high of $124,000-$126,000, a figure seemingly opening the door to $150,000. Just a few days later, a severe sell-off wave began. By the end of November, Bitcoin’s value had lost approximately 25-27%, currently hovering around $91,000-$93,000. This figure reflects not only a price decline but also over $1 trillion in market capitalization wiped out in less than two months.

Minutes of horror during the weekend shock

The peak of tension occurred during the weekend of October 10-12. In just a few hours, Bitcoin plummeted below $105,000. Ethereum lost 11-12%, and thousands of altcoins experienced devastating declines of 40-70%, with some low-liquidity pairs nearly approaching zero.

This was not just a normal correction. It was a brutal leverage liquidation—within less than 24 hours, leveraged positions worth $17-19 billion were liquidated, dragging 1.6 million traders worldwide into the vortex. This event clearly exposed the structural flaws of the market.

The political spark that ignited a pre-prepared powder keg

At first glance, the cause seems obvious: a surprise announcement from the Trump administration about imposing up to 100% tariffs on imports from China caused traders to turn away from risky assets. Crypto, being one of the most sensitive sectors to market sentiment, was hit hardest. Over-leveraged traders did not have time to react before automatic margin call mechanisms kicked in.

But what is the deeper story?

For months, the market had existed in a fragile equilibrium. On one side was the narrative of a “super cycle” of price increases—Bitcoin surpassing $150,000, and crypto market cap reaching $5-10 trillion seemed only a matter of time. On the other side was the unstable macroeconomic reality: the Fed lowering interest rates but signaling clearly that no “easy money” would be coming soon.

In this context, excessive leverage made the entire system extremely vulnerable. When prices started to fall, forced liquidation created a domino effect—each sell-off triggered further sell orders, each support level broken led to more automated algorithms accelerating sales. Exchanges suddenly had to process orders in increasingly thin liquidity conditions.

Psychology also played a role. After months of hearing well-structured forecasts about an inevitable rally, a large number of traders—especially latecomers—fully believed in this story. When reality diverged, the gap between “expectation” and “actual price” turned doubt into panic.

Three possible scenarios for the remaining weeks of the year

Looking ahead, instead of trying to predict precisely, it’s better to consider scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Gradual recovery: Some reports indicate that long-term investors are starting to re-enter. A rebalancing strategy is underway: increasing Bitcoin and major coins, reducing high-risk altcoin exposure. This signals a market slowly absorbing the shock.

Scenario 2 - Sideways movement: Prices stop crashing but also struggle to rebound significantly. Daily volatility remains high, but no clear trend emerges. This phase hits short-term traders hardest, as false signals appear repeatedly.

Scenario 3 - New downturn: Bitcoin tests the $70,000-$80,000 zone, with altcoins experiencing thin liquidity and little positive momentum. This could happen if new macro shocks occur or unexpected decisions are made by central banks.

The reality may be a mix of all three—partial recovery, followed by stagnation, then new volatility related to decisions by the Fed, ECB, and political news.

Bitcoin’s October 2024 historical data: What does it say?

From a historical data analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s seasonal trend in Q4 tends to be quite positive. Data from 2017 to 2024 shows a tendency for year-end gains on average, despite significant volatility across years.

However, it’s important to remember that history is only a guide, not a guarantee. 2024 has proven this—what past data suggests is not always applicable to the present, especially when macroeconomic and geopolitical factors change.

Institutional investors: The market’s turning point

A key difference from previous cycles is the more organized presence of large capital flows. Many major funds, which previously viewed crypto as a short-term speculative tool, have now integrated it into long-term diversification strategies.

Importantly: despite the October crash, signals from trading desks do not indicate a full retreat. Instead, these investors are rebalancing positions, managing risks more tightly, but still maintaining exposure to this asset class.

This event has also prompted reactions from regulators. Clearly, the issue is no longer “should we regulate crypto” but “how to regulate without stifling innovation.” Proposals include increasing transparency around leverage use, implementing stricter risk management requirements, and establishing unified reporting standards for organizations involved with crypto.

Trading tips for those who stay

The October 2025 shock is not an isolated event. It is a test of the crypto industry’s maturity. It demonstrates that a single political news can spread globally within minutes, especially when leverage mechanisms remain a dominant force.

However, it also shows that the market can maintain liquidity and activity even under extreme pressure. The emergence of institutional investors is gradually transforming the approach from “go all-in or nothing” to a more balanced process.

With Bitcoin currently at $91.77K (as of January 2026), the question is not whether the price will go up or down in December, but to understand the true nature of this phase.

On one hand: there is real risk of new shocks from macroeconomic and geopolitical instability.

On the other hand: this crash could be a natural selection step, separating resilient projects from purely speculative mechanisms that the market has long overlooked.

The conclusion is: crypto remains a high-risk asset. Leverage must be managed with extreme caution. And those who choose to continue playing should do so with clear vision, strict risk management, and an understanding that moments like October 2025 are not minor setbacks but structural parts of the crypto cycle.