BTC breaks through $92,500, looking fierce, but it's worth calmly reflecting on the market behind the hotness.

This wave of rally is largely driven by expectations of possible personnel changes at the Federal Reserve Chair. However, it's important to understand that even if there is a change, it doesn't mean the new chair will immediately cut interest rates significantly. According to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast, the US economy remains relatively stable in 2026, and inflation is under control. The Fed may only lower rates by 25 basis points in June and September. In other words, the market's imagination about rate cuts may be overly exaggerated.

Moreover, rate cuts themselves are quite complex. Easing policies may not directly help the employment market and could instead shift capital into emerging fields like AI. If rate cuts happen too quickly, it could also trigger inflation expectations. Currently, US leaders are very skilled at guiding market expectations, and retail investors are easily influenced, which is a risk signal in itself.

The change in Federal Reserve leadership can also be easily overinterpreted as a reform signal. In reality, the impact may not be so direct.

To sum up: the increase is indeed significant, but don’t be blinded by short-term emotions. Stay alert to all potential risks.