Market forgetfulness is easily triggered. Whenever the market is doing well, someone will bring up UNI's all-time high, hoping for a new surge. But if we put aside the expectations filter and examine purely from a fundamental perspective, we will find that UNI is experiencing a form of "invisible downgrade"—this is not short-term volatility, but structural pressure.

**Regulatory Crackdown Accelerates**

Frankly, this is no longer just alarmist talk. Policy pressure on DeFi is indeed intensifying. From public opinion against DeFi to actual legislative actions, the entire industry faces significant compliance risks. As certain bills are about to be voted on, once relevant clauses take effect, the compliance of DEX projects will face real tests. For major DEXs like UNI, this policy risk is long-term and will not dissipate just because of a short-term market rebound.

**Token Release Pressure Is More Heavy Than Expected**

Many mock the unlocking schedule of VC tokens, but UNI's treasury release plan is equally severe. Currently, only 630 million UNI are in circulation, while 270 million remain in the treasury waiting to be released. An annual stable release of 20 million tokens continues for over a decade. To put it another way, an additional supply of five million tokens needs to be absorbed by the market, which often takes more than a month. This long-term, systemic dilution effect will gradually offset the upward momentum.

**The Other Side of the "Deflation" Narrative**

The common mention of a 0.44% deflation rate often overlooks more critical details. The white paper clearly states that the protocol can increase issuance by up to 2% annually. It sounds small, but the key point is—project governance voting power is enough to activate this feature. Meanwhile, the 20 million tokens released from the treasury each year are enough to fully offset that burn effect. So, the "deflation" narrative has limited practical significance.

**The Reality Gap**

The circulating supply of 630 million is completely different from the situation in 2021. UNI will definitely fluctuate with the overall market. If the market goes up, UNI will rise too. But due to long-term, cumulative selling pressure factors, the next peak is likely to be lower than market expectations. In other words, even if there is a rebound, enough psychological buffer should be reserved for these fundamental realities.