The gold market this week featured a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. From January 5 to 8, against the backdrop of rising global geopolitical risks and unclear central bank policy paths, we profited from both sides amid volatility — the underlying logic is quite clear: escalation of the US-China-Taiwan situation combined with tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East drove a large influx of safe-haven funds into gold; at the same time, the Chinese central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months to 74.15 million ounces, and the global central bank gold-buying frenzy continues (industry estimates project total gold purchases reaching 755 tons by 2026), laying a solid medium- to long-term foundation for gold prices.

However, on January 9, the market suddenly pulled back. December US non-farm payroll data was weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate actually fell, directly changing market expectations for the Federal Reserve — the probability of a rate cut, which was originally 60%, instantly dropped to 5%, and the short-term strengthening of the dollar suppressed gold prices. We experienced a small loss at that time, but after timely stop-loss, we immediately adjusted our strategy.

The key was to reassess the macro outlook: although the probability of a Fed rate cut has decreased recently, two rate cuts are still expected by 2026, and the actual downward trend of real interest rates has not changed. Plus, the ongoing resonance of geopolitical risks has not diminished, so the safe-haven value and long-term appeal of gold remain intact. A few trading days later, the market rebounded, and we re-established long positions, ultimately recovering and improving our gains.

A week of practical trading confirmed one principle: the logic of the 2026 gold bull market remains unchanged. Central bank gold purchases, rate cut cycles, and geopolitical risk premiums all support a strong technical structure, and the correction is just building momentum. Capturing macro rhythm fluctuations and viewing pullbacks as opportunities to position is the key to stable profits.